Has the Two Decade Climb turned Downhill?

[PBX Ronin 23]

Here's another paintball discourse. Chime in with your observation especially if your livelihood has something to do with paintball.

I just spoke to one of the sport's most respected elder statesman and he seems to concur with my recent observation that the industry as a whole has entered into a prolonged slump. The double-digit annual increases that we have seen unabated in recent years has now hit a wall.

Recent indications of this include drops in year-to-date numbers compared to previous years particularly of one of the industry's biggest gun manufacturers. Having spoken to industry acquaintances across the country that has always 'cried' poverty in the past, are now contemplating closing down shop. They represent both field owners and retail stores combined. The gentleman I spoke to has stated that there has been a noticeable drop in new recreational players. Such being the case and knowing that tournament players evolve from recreational players, the tournament scene may very well see a down-turn too in the succeeding months.

Some of the big box stores like Wal-Mart who have increased the retail shelf allotment for paintball products may be disenchanted with their lackluster return. If this is indeed the case, are we seeing a decrease in the most critical segment of the market that has sustained the industry’s phenomenal growth..... the entry-level players?

I don't want to come across as an alarmist especially in light that the sport in particular is starting to heavily penetrate the mainstream media, but numbers don't lie.

What will the SGMA figures tell us once they are released? I was hopeful before that we might at least see a modest growth rate. A single digit growth rate instead of the double digit ones that we been so accustomed to would be welcomed. But even these soon-to-be-released numbers gives me a sense of foreboding that the industry will see a downturn before it plateaus.

What's your sense of the current state-of-affairs?

[Lohman446]

I'll put more in later, but let me just ask a question.

Paintball was growing at phenomanel rates that only an industry in its infancy can generally be expected to have. Did we expect this to continue out of infancy?

[kramer]

We are in a recession - coupled with the inflation of everything (gas - BIG one) - COUPLED with the fact that paintball prices (paint, field fees, etc etc) are unreal - spells out trouble for the industry.

So barring from all the rich kiddies that have mommy and daddy shelling out bucks, or the other elites that seem to have money pouring out of their rear ends - the regular joe paintballer is struggling - which means a wave effect towards any profits towards the industry.

Which is a damn shame since I love this darn extreme-sport.


just my 2cents.

[Chronobreak]

the sport can only allow for so many new players to join.

i think alot of the companies you mentione were counting or expecting the growth rate to continue for some time but the truth is the pool is dilluted.

companies like wal-mart were probly seeing an increase in sales and thought lets expand.
with more companies having entry level brands and producst it leaves less of the pie for everyone in the long run.

paintball used to be so small compared to what it is now so almost any increase seemed like alot.

while I'm in no way affiliated with the industry theres my thoughts.

and i wouldnt be surprised to see smaller companies business dropping out, until the giants of the industry are left to battle it out.

i do work at a field and i would say the amount of new players is rather steady or so it seems..

--edit i also agree with lohman and kramer, everythings getting more $ it seems, and most of us arent making more $(ex paintballers main age group 14-20 or so)

[paullus99]

Paintball as an industry is beginning to mature - the nature of the business is changing & will result in a considerable die-off of small companies that either can't grow fast enough to compete or capture a niche market in the industry.

There are still plenty of opportunities out there, but I think you will continue to see fundamental shifts in the way the business is run, the sport evolving, and a new generation of players entering into the sport that will shift the industry focus once again.

We are still seeing plenty of growth in the Mid-Atlantic, maybe not the kind of growth like the mid-1990's, but demand is still there.

[PBX Ronin 23]

Paintball as an industry is beginning to mature - the nature of the business is changing & will result in a considerable die-off of small companies that either can't grow fast enough to compete or capture a niche market in the industry.

There are still plenty of opportunities out there, but I think you will continue to see fundamental shifts in the way the business is run, the sport evolving, and a new generation of players entering into the sport that will shift the industry focus once again.

We are still seeing plenty of growth in the Mid-Atlantic, maybe not the kind of growth like the mid-1990's, but demand is still there.

I agree with your first assessment. The industry is indeed maturing as evidenced with the recent spate of litigation and the ever-increasing need for intellectual property attorneys in the field. The small companies that cannot innovate and remain agile to meet market challenges will in all likelihood perish. The larger companies who hold onto assets, both financial and intellectual will be the ones to survive the down-turn.

For now, opportunities are still abound in certain parts of the country. But some of the traditionally strong markets (i.e. NYC tri-state area, California and Florida, to name a few) are beginning to feel the slow-down. If we see an overall decrease in new entry-level players, down the line, we will see an inevitable decrease in tournament level players as well.

Whereabout in the Mid-Atlantic region are you from?

[BigEvil]

I agree with many of the statements above...

I want to add that Paintball is also a luxury. People cant afford to play at commercial fields every weeked. Look at recrational softball... it costs next to nothing to play in a league and you get to play every weekend, plus practices.

I know that I can't apply that to paintball. If I play 100 times a year, 95 of them are outlaw with my own $40/case paint and $5/fill scuba tank. Those other 5 times are when I plurge and hit a big game or other event, such as an AO day or something.

Once the newness of having tried paintball wears off then a lot of people dont come back. Or even worst - people listen to horror stories around the water cooler (or by their school lockers) from someone who played for the first time and got lit up.

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

[shartley]

As did the elder statesman, Id concur with your observation,

The resounding reason I keep hearing from players (new and old alike) is that paintball isnt as fun anymore. This comes from all styles of players(rec-ballers, tourney-ballers, scenario-ballers).

When you see the pioneers of the game leaving(the ones who did it for the pure love of it), chances are likely that the above statement is true for more reasons than are obvious.
I would argue, and do, that all the “pioneers of the game” did not do it for the pure love of the game (if you are talking about the manufacturers). They did probably love the game, but if they didn’t see the money rolling in, they would not have kept at it as long as they did. And isn’t it ironic that once the paintball industry starts being run like EVERY OTHER INDUSTRY the “pioneers” drop like flies?

I have said it for years, that if paintball was any other industry it would have failed by now. I saw things that just would never have worked in any other industry, and people put up with a lot more things they would never have from any other industry they dealt with.

Now that things have come to a more realistic plateau concerning business and profits some want to act like the industry is in a slump? Heck, my business has never been better. But I still don’t see the profits I would like to see, nor the money in general I would like to see… but that is business. These other companies just got used to unrealistic profit margins and then got lazy. Now they have to WORK for their money.

Remember the “internet boom”? Look how many people made money had over fist. Then we had the “crash” where everyone realized what was happening and folks dropped like flies.

Do we still have internet businesses? Do we still make money using the internet? Do companies still make money helping other companies use the internet?

Yes to them all.

So why should we act like the sky is falling with paintball? It simply isn’t. Things are finally calming down and the REAL work of business is happening.

As for paintball not being fun any more, I would suggest that people are hanging around with the wrong people. I see paintball doing nothing but growing, and almost everyone I talk to (from all styles of play) loves the game and have loads of fun playing it. Some of them have never had more fun than what they have had in the past couple years. And I see new players each and every day.

There are definite circles in paintball (and online paintball folks) and it seems to me that AO tends to draw some of the more negative people in the sport.

But with all that said, we must keep in mind (as stated in other posts) this is not a cheap sport, nor is it anything more than a luxury. And I will also point out that many people simply don’t recall (or time has changed their “memory”) what paintball was REALLY like “back when”. Folks think prices are high now? Heck, prices are fantastic compared to what they used to be (to play the game) and you can find fields to play all over the place now. “Outlaw” is now a choice for most players, not a necessity.

Sorry, I disagree with the premise presented in this thread. I see it as a weeding out time for the industry, not a demise of it. I see it as the industry finally falling into a realistic business cycle and those crying only got spoiled by the unnatural cycle it was in before. I see nothing but good things coming, but those who got fat in the past will just have to join the real world and tighten their belts a bit. But they will still be able to eat, and eat well if they run their business correctly.

But hey… that is just how I see things…. I could be wrong (but haven’t been so far).

[Lurker27]

I think something that's being ignored here is the further bifurcation of the paintball industry. The Wal-Marts of the world are not selling to a growing extreme sport that's getting television exposure like never before. The largest chains are still selling to the camo-wearing backyard warriors, which are, generally, players maligned by those in the tourney scene.

The main difference, of course, is economic. In backyard/woods ball, one case can last several sessions of play. In general, you have people playing with total setups falling well below the $200 price point. As soon as you get into speedball, you're realistically talking about upwards of $500 to play competitively, or emulate the pros. Add in the image that paintball has, largely associated with skateboarding, marijuana use, etc. and you're left with a marginal sport that has start-up costs far surpassing the more entrenched traditionalist sports.

I think that by and large, its fundamentally difficult to spur growth from an uninitiated populace into tournament paintball. To further expand paitnball as a userbase, you'd need to expand low budget woodsball games. The problem is, such a long-view expansion falls short of immediate earnings projections...why not just build a $1700 super-marker, since people already in the sport are buying them.


It's already having a ripple effect. There are less and less people joining the ranks of the tournament ballers. I hesitate to use the word saturation, but it's getting there. Already used gun prices are beginning to decrease in value as the market begins to fail under it's own weight...Basically no paintball guns go permanaently out of service, and new ones are always being bought.

So, to summarize a somehwat hurried and disjointed post. The growth cannot be spurred by the one section that the industry is trying to do it with. The game as a whole is at critical mass/population for word of mouth spreading, in my opinion. I think that the best tactic would be to let the flashy players endorse woodsball products concurrently with their highend tourney stuff.

"Hi, I'm Chris LaSoya. Everyone has to start somewhere, and for me, it was Tippmann" and so on and so forth.

Can you imagine how much a smart parts electro-eyes-blowback endorsed by Dynasty would sell for? Granted, it would probably be 2 tubes soldered together with a price of ~$80, but the potential for earnings is simply outstanding.

Post Scriptum: I'm not saying we shoulda abandon the tourney scene, ala AGD. They've priced themselves out, more or less, of the range of the casual baller.

Mel, I'd like to discuss this and other things at length with you in a different format.

[AcemanPB]

Either way, I'm still playing.

[mag88888]

hmmmmmm around where i live, paintball is geting jacked. everyone wants to play it. ive introduced dozens of people and all the kids ive played with love it. im trying my best to spread the sport. i search for extra guns and masks everywhere foir them to use. i give them all pballs to use. around here its worth it cause i like to see new kids. after every game i here, "can i buy this from you?" every kid has now bought their own guns.

[mag88888]

everyone is too nervous about the sport dying or whatever. its been around for only 20 years! thats all people, just 20 years. the sport is in its infancy and all people are doing is throwing cigarettes at it. people back off, calm down, were the pathway for the sports future. if all you want the sport to live lets see more positive remarks than the everlasting negativeness!

[paullus99]

Central Maryland - there are several fields within about 40mins of my residence (some good, some bad, but all still in business & busy). At least two paintball businesses in my area are expanding (Pev's & OA both) and capturing new segments of the market. By some figures, at least 75% of paintball players in our area never play at organized fields (and you should see how many tanks get filled & cases of paint purchased on Thursdays & Fridays), but play outlaw ball only.

If we can find a way to bring more of these players back to the fields, you'd see a huge increase in growth - but it remains to be seen if that is possible. No one really gets into the paintball business to get rich (especially the field owners) - normally its something to pay the land mortgage until some big developer comes in and buys the place out for a mint.

[PBX Ronin 23]

So why should we act like the sky is falling with paintball? It simply isn’t. Things are finally calming down and the REAL work of business is happening.......

Sorry, I disagree with the premise presented in this thread. I see it as a weeding out time for the industry, not a demise of it. I see it as the industry finally falling into a realistic business cycle and those crying only got spoiled by the unnatural cycle it was in before. I see nothing but good things coming, but those who got fat in the past will just have to join the real world and tighten their belts a bit. But they will still be able to eat, and eat well if they run their business correctly.

Yes, perhaps we're seeing the development of a more traditional economic cycle developing here. But the fact of the matter is, variables that have a macro-economic impact such as the rising price of gas/oil for example, has served not only to retard the growth of the industry this past year but could also serve to adversely impact it again this year.

The smaller companies will fall by the wayside while the capitally strong ones will forge ahead into a more conventional and cyclical market....this I agree with wholeheartedly.


I think that by and large, its fundamentally difficult to spur growth from an uninitiated populace into tournament paintball. To further expand paitnball as a userbase, you'd need to expand low budget woodsball games.......

There are less and less people joining the ranks of the tournament ballers. I hesitate to use the word saturation, but it's getting there............

So, to summarize a somehwat hurried and disjointed post. The growth cannot be spurred by the one section that the industry is trying to do it with.

I would disagree with your premise simply because of the following:
1. No one is born a tournament baller. They develop from entry-level woods ballers.
2. The Entry-level player is the pipeline that feeds the tournament scene with new players. They may not all become tourney ballers but a tourney baller certainly has to start somewhere.
3. The largest segment of gun sales for the industry is the entry-level market.

[boggerman]

I am not in the industry, but I was looking forward to playing this year more than ever before and unfortunately the paintball scene has completely dried up around here. I am disheartened to think that I may have to resume a different hobby simply because there is no one to play with. :cry:

[johnson88]

I dont know about some of you but in my town there are so many people who play when i first got into paintball everyone had outlaw woods games now i see more and more people heading for the local feild and speedball. Im sorry to say it but i think a lot of the realism senario people out there might help keep the sport alive because they think its like war.

I think paintball has changed so much since i have been playing some for good. For example when i first started there was spyder and tippmann knock offs then 600 and up guns which all seemed so far away. And i think the industry is relizeing this and getting more intermedaite level markers out there which helps expand the sport. But also i have seen it change into a speed contest where everyone wants the fastest newst thing. So i think the new intermediate level guns will get many more people into the sport.

[Lurker27]

I must not have communicated myself very well.

I am saying that the expansion of the sport has been oriented towards the image of tournament paitnball, which is prohibitively expensive for someone unaffiliated with paintball to jump right into.

If tourney ball is a progression from woodsball, why not market woodsball? You'd see an increase in total # of players, rather than a greater % devoted to tourney play. I'm still being inarticluate, but my point is that its too expensive to play tourney ball from the perception of someone outside of paintball with respect to other sports.

[Lohman446]

When paintball first started its potential market was bigger. What I mean by that is noone had played. It is not uncommon in "new" markets to see enormous growth rates (double digits) for several years. However, this is not realistically maintainable and anyone who thought it was... well frankly had no business education. I am surprised the "growth" of the industry lasted as long as it did. Further, you had the other advantage of this growth. "New" companies could step in, the other companies were not large enough, or had nto had invested enough to drown out competition. This is both fields, manufacturers, and stores. Granted you can always step into a market, but its easier when there are not established players.

Now we have overshot what we could support, or so it seems. Counting on growth that we could not maintain we have saturated the market with manufacturers, fields, stores, etc. You have the other issue. It is fairly economical to start a paintball field in relation to other businesses that deal in the type of revenue they do. A lot of people have started them with just plain wrong assumptions about profitability. Those that have grown at a reasonable rate, and have established themselves are ok. Those that were started because some kid convinced his parents paintball wuold make them all rich, for the most part, are gone, or will be.

As we see growth slow to normal we will see more solid companies, and less slipping by the wayside. These companies will be founded on solid business models, and not wild speculation and great ideas... I think we are running out of advancements that are just leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. They will last.

Granted, this sudden though expected (or should have been) slow down in growth, and perhaps shrinkage of the market place is made worse by the current economy and inflation of necessities the sport will continue. It will just continue with those companies that had as sound of business plans as they did inventions.

[PBX Ronin 23]

I am saying that the expansion of the sport has been oriented towards the image of tournament paitnball, which is prohibitively expensive for someone unaffiliated with paintball to jump right into.

If tourney ball is a progression from woodsball, why not market woodsball? You'd see an increase in total # of players, rather than a greater % devoted to tourney play. I'm still being inarticluate, but my point is that its too expensive to play tourney ball from the perception of someone outside of paintball with respect to other sports.
I got you Wonder Boy.....I pm'ed you. :)


When paintball first started its potential market was bigger. What I mean by that is noone had played. It is not uncommon in "new" markets to see enormous growth rates (double digits) for several years. However, this is not realistically maintainable and anyone who thought it was... well frankly had no business education.........

........A lot of people have started them with just plain wrong assumptions about profitability. Those that have grown at a reasonable rate, and have established themselves are ok. Those that were started because some kid convinced his parents paintball wuold make them all rich, for the most part, are gone, or will be.

As we see growth slow to normal we will see more solid companies, and less slipping by the wayside. These companies will be founded on solid business models, and not wild speculation and great ideas...

Granted, this sudden though expected (or should have been) slow down in growth, and perhaps shrinkage of the market place is made worse by the current economy and inflation of necessities the sport will continue. It will just continue with those companies that had as sound of business plans as they did inventions.
Ten-four that. But the problem also exist that the people who have no clue are going into the paintball business only results in worsening the conditions in an already crowded market.

[Lohman446]

I got you Wonder Boy.....I pm'ed you. :)


Ten-four that. But the problem also exist that the people who have no clue are going into the paintball business only results in worsening the conditions in an already crowded market.

People who have no clue often go into the automotive industry. Aside from a select few they normally influence my bottom line for about six months. Remember boys and girls, most business loose money for the first 1 to 3 years. Most take about seven to make back there initial investment. Paintball is becoming more and more a "normal" business and those going into it, expecting instant and vast profits, are finding they cannot survive the years that it takes to build a business.

[voodooaddict]

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

I would have to agree.

While mid-highend paintball markers have gotten so much better and afordable, they have had the side effect of seriously intimidating the new player with rental equiptment. The gap between rental mechs and mid to high end electro's these days is similar to a Classic Mag vs a Pump 10 years ago. The main differance being that 15+bps electros cause much more pain. While this has always been an issue, it apears to be getting worse.

The new players who used rentals are going home and not fondly remembering the time they had. When I started (over 10 years ago now), getting lit up bad was 2-3 extra hits. And that didn't often happen with the ROF those days. With the average rates of fire these days ... you are glad if you only get hit 2-3 extra times. Being lit up by some kid with an Impulse every game won't bring players back out. Even out in the woods fields, kids are shooting strings of paint at rental players. While these kids aren't intentionaly overshooting people, it still really hurts. The new players are going to go home and go back to playing video games, or worse ... golf :p They aren't even going to goto wal-mart and buy themselves a spyder clone because it won't prevent the pain.

I'm organizing a private game for my friends that have never played before later this season. That way they don't need to deal with people overshooting them. I've got a small collection of markers now that folks will be using along with the rentals ... I'm going to be locking all of them down to 8-9 bps range for the private game. My brother and cousin won't be very happy with me about the limit! But they'll hopefully deal with it. This is one of the reasons why I made sure that every elecro I bought had an adjustable max rate of fire.

(... damn I want to get out and play! Only 3 more weeks till the ankle heals up. Till then lurking...)

[FreakBaller12]

Once the newness of having tried paintball wears off then a lot of people dont come back. Or even worst - people listen to horror stories around the water cooler (or by their school lockers) from someone who played for the first time and got lit up.

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

that's because, look at the industry, look at our bps rates. Yea your going to get an extra shot or two, which could scare the crap out of somebody being hit for the first time. Paintball is mainly speedball, 90% of the commercial fields are speedball, and that's where kids usually go to play their first time. This sport isn't newb friendly anymore, back in the day you'd play in the woods get "sniped" or whatev, shot once and leave the field, no biggie. But with today's ramping full auto, bps jumping, fps inverter dohiggies, your going to get shot more than once.

edit:pretty much what voodoo said I agree with.

[cdacda13]

So many long posts.

My take is that, newbies are starting out by buying used guns. Why? becuase its cheaper. Therefore, pb companies lost sales. More and More people buy used markers each day.
Back in the day(which i wasn't around for) people only bought guns new because the paintball community wasn't as close as it is now. Now, with the internet and pb forums, it easier to by a cheaper used gun, then spend 2x as much on the same gun "new" Products are being recycled, which is VERY BAD for any company,
I rarely buy new pb stuff, its so much cheaper to pick up a "NIB" gun or item. That 1000$ i could have spend on an angel would have gone into WDP pockets, but insted, I can spend 700$ on a used angel. THats 1000$ less not into WDP pockets.

[shartley]

People who have no clue often go into the automotive industry. Aside from a select few they normally influence my bottom line for about six months. Remember boys and girls, most business loose money for the first 1 to 3 years. Most take about seven to make back there initial investment. Paintball is becoming more and more a "normal" business and those going into it, expecting instant and vast profits, are finding they cannot survive the years that it takes to build a business.
As a rule you are very correct. I have seen paintball shop after shop open up in my area, only to close a year or so later. But the shops that have been around for quite some time are still here. And in fact, they are doing better than a few years ago.

The big problem I see is two fold…. First of all paintball businesses had virtually no competition locally. They were the only kids on the block selling lemonade. This created an atmosphere where they didn’t really have to work for their business, they simply had to BE there.

But when other businesses suddenly pop up, things change, even if those other businesses are not around long. The businesses who kept their heads and didn’t get all worried in a slight drop in business for a short period were the ones who ended up surviving and thriving.

The other thing is related to the first issue. Paintball businesses (n general) up until a few years ago didn’t really have to worry about advertising. There were virtually no radio spots and NO T.V spots concerning paintball fields or shops in the years past. You can not say that about any other industry, heck even amusement parks with virtually no competition in a 300mile radius had advertising out for the world to see… but not paintball shops and fields.

You could find stapled flyers from time to time though, and those were mostly on colored paper and designed in some simply word processing program by the field owner themselves or some kid who reffed for them. And I can tell you that this didn’t help the overall image of our sport either. Again, it goes back to what I said about if paintball was any other industry it would be gone by now.

But with all that said, we are starting to see things “normalize” and standard business “things” happen. And to me that is a good thing. It is also a sign of future growth and stability. And that my friends is a good thing, for both businesses and players.


that's because, look at the industry, look at our bps rates. Yea your going to get an extra shot or two, which could scare the crap out of somebody being hit for the first time. Paintball is mainly speedball, 90% of the commercial fields are speedball, and that's where kids usually go to play their first time. This sport isn't newb friendly anymore, back in the day you'd play in the woods get "sniped" or whatev, shot once and leave the field, no biggie. But with today's ramping full auto, bps jumping, fps inverter dohiggies, your going to get shot more than once.

edit:pretty much what voodoo said I agree with.
Paintball is mainly speedball? 90% of the commercial fields are speedball? Where do you get these facts? Are you talking about a particular area of the country?

I would agree that most paintball fields have at least one speedball field, and that speedball fields are easier to build and maintain (as well as pack in more fields per land area) , but I can assure you that speedball is not the main type of game played in many parts of the country. I have seen the larger fields make sure they offer that type of game, but also keep the classic styles of play going strong…. And why? Because the players still want the older formats.

I have even seen some fields step away from promoting speedball formats because of the “tournament wannabe” players they attract. And I will also point out that a good many fields have moved to a large game format and fields easily modified for scenario play because that portion of the game is coming back into its own…. with a vengeance.

People need to look around to see what is actually happening in the industry, not just what is happening in their little corner of it. I purposely have to do this since my market is not primarily locally based, it is nationwide. We can far too often get the wrong impression by what we see in magazines, or at our local fields concerning various issues. But players in general don’t need to worry about this, businesses on the other hand DO.

On another note, folks keep commenting on the price of markers being a factor in Noob involvement. I don’t see it as being the case. There are many -$300 markers that can keep up with the ROFs being seen on the average field. For years if you wanted a decent setup (marker/air/hopper/pods and pack/mask) you have had to spend at a minimum several hundred dollars up to $400+ for your (what I consider) basic setup. Yes, you could go with cheap 2 pod in a pouch and webbing belt setup and run a shake and bake hopper, non-thremal goggles, etc. but if you were going to do any real playing all of those things would be quickly upgraded anyways…. So the player just wasted their money.

Getting geared up for paintball is not cheap, and has not been for quite some time. And the things I mentioned were the BASICS. You can add in jerseys, pants, headwear, gloves, neck guards, body armor (leg, chest, arms) and a whole slew of things that drive the investment price even higher. Simply put, paintball is not a sport every person can easily jump into without making some sort of serious investment. But I continue to see folks post as if they think it should be.

However, with even THAT said, it is still not out of the reach of a HUGE segment of our population. Paintball is no longer a “fringe” activity, but a true sport. The lowered numbers of “growth” and ROI should not be frowned upon, or even feared. Paintball is now seeing numbers that most industries take for granted and would be relatively happy having. And for those businesses that were just surviving and struggling to stay in business in the past, think about it… you would have failed a long time ago if you were in any other industry.

I will also point out that most players are blissfully clueless about what really goes on behind the scene concerning business in the paintball industry… no matter what they think from looking through the bakery window.

[tyrion2323]

This may be an extremely simplistic point, but we can't ignore the fact that enough paintball guns have been introduced into the market that many players simply trade or buy used guns instead of buying all brand new guns...

I mean, there really isn't a "have to have" product or technology anymore...Speeds have become ridiculous, most technologies have caught up with the 21st century...I really believe it's going to have to be a big movement on the part of both players and field-owners, not manufacturers.

[UThomas]

This is very standard industry evolution that is covered in Competative Strategy classes at business school. Paintball is moving from stage 1 growth to stage 2 shakeout, where the number of new entrants drops and lots of old ones that can't capture the new market drop off. Cost becomes a bigger factor is you try to leap the gap from early adopters to main stream.

If you check out standard industry trends you'll also get a feel for where paintball is going and why.

[Jackel411]

My view on this.... as the resident jaded old school young paintballer.. ( almost 22 but playing since he was 9 and around the game since 85 )

Ive watched the demographic change WAAAAAAY to much over the years I remember a time not to long ago really.. Id say 95/96 where Id be the only kid at the field.... now fast foward 10 years later some times Im the only adult! Ive said it before and got bashed many times for it.. Paintball is becoming a kiddie game and we all let it happen..

So....

SO be it if the entry level players are going away, personally the game could use some time to play filter out the players that arent long term and catch up. When you think about it the industry is chasing away the entry level players any way.. they can make more money selling expensive guns that cost 75 bucks to build , 1100 WS , and 1600 Retail every one makes a good amount of change VS. 25 bucks to build , 65 WS , and 90 Retail , Yes you could sell more of the lower end ones but low end guns have such a stigma now adays. More so with the introduction of the budget machine gun known as the Ion.. 300 Bucks gets you a gun with features up till now have only been found on guns costing 3 times that price....

Also look at other trends in the industry.... Kingman low end guns are no in the upper 100's , PMI's low end guns are still cheap and decent , Brass eagle guns the most exposed cheap gun basically disintegrates in 4 months after puraches from fun ailments like metal fatuige and gaulling of the inside chambers. WGP now has a decent low end semi and its a cocker. Tippmanns recent buy out spelled doom for them.. Ive seen more newer tippmanns break out of the box more than ever since the buy out..

There will be a time and its coming soon that in order to keep in the game every player is going to need to get a Higher ROF gun.. and when that happens.. The only people to benifit will be the paint companies.. just think of the ramifications of going to a field and getting stiched every time you get hit not just one ball. cause thats where were heading.. Now replace you with the Johnny Newbie... yeah I dont think he is going to play to long..

[UThomas]

Well, the demographics haven't so much changed in the sense that one group was replaced, as the sport when mainstream and a whole new user group joined. Complain about it, but that is why paint is half the price it use to be and there are tons of new fields.

At this stage in the industry companies are going to compete more and more on price. They have to because there are not clear value differentiators, as we have seen with ROF.

[NoForts4Me]

There are several interesting things coming out of this discussion.

1) Rate of Fire is detrimental to gaining new players. This in part is due to manufacturers whose only real innovation over the last few years (besides fancy milling) is increased rates of fire, and partly due to players who cry "faster, faster!". Since the possiblity of overshooting has dramatically increased, fields are going to have to jump in and seperate players based on skill/markers/etc. if they want to grow their base. They have different colored slopes at ski resorts, so it isn't an uncommon practice.

2) Let's go back to the Woods! Wow, what a turnaround. When I rejoined the sport 2+ years ago after a long hiatus, everyone was talking about how Woodsball was dead, and the game should move "out of the woods." Now people are advocating playing in the woods again. I think one reason is the game slows down and equalizes to an extent, since the fields are larger and there is usually more cover. It also probably isn't as intimidating for new players as a 60 second speedball game with thousands of rounds flying through the air. I'm all for this, especially since that's pretty much all I play.

3) The cost of the sport is exorbitantly high. This is somewhat true if you try to keep up with everyone else. Paint is cheaper now, but equipment can be much higher. One thing I see is the industry splintering into segmented groups. Pump play is on the rise, as well as Woodsball (see above), and we could possibly see mechs splitting off as well (if they haven't already). To me, this is good because there are plenty of choices. However, a new player may walk-on to a field and see $25 field fees, $70 a case paint, and people bragging about their $1500 markers and $500 worth of equipment, and hey, you suck since you have a Spyder, and they may never return since they aren't aware there are other ways to play and enjoy the sport.

4) Industry competition has increased and it's good/bad. This has positives and negatives, as has been stated before. But this is just part of it, and we will have to ride it out. However, other industries and sports have survived this, and so will paintball. Unfortunately, some of the companies we love will fall by the wayside.

All in all, I don't think the industry is headed for a crash. There may be a slump in some saturated areas, but there are areas (like mine) where the sport is rapidly growing. The growth rate won't be as large as the past, but it should steadily increase unless the U.S. has a major economical slide. And, if you've read all of my post and made it to here, you get one of these :clap: !

[Jeffy-CanCon]

I'll speak to a couple of points.

(1) Paintball is less expensive today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. The paint is less expensive, and so is the equipment. Chatting recently witha friend I played with ten years ago, he told me that the gun set-up he carried onto the field at the World Cup in '98 cost about $3500. There is no gun/air/hopper today that costs that much, that I am aware of.
Low end gear is half teh price today that it was 10 years ago, and is better quality.

(2) voodooaddict said it first, and some others have alluded to the negative effects of high ROF. Ask the people you play with, and the people you know who tried paintball with you once, long ago, about their first experience. If they had a good time, they came back. If they got lit-up, they probably didn't. I know at least one field that was worried about this two years ago, and planning to separate their walk-on groups by ROF.

(3) Jackel411's point about changing demographics is they key, IMO. Ten years ago, surveys showed that the average paintballer stayed with the sport for only about 18 months. Maybe that's changed a bit, maybe it hasn't. Paintball's growth has been a result of expanding the markets through sales at WalMart and the like, and of lowering the minimum ages. Every year more and more younger players were coming in, and this increasing age range masked the fact that there was still significant turnover. But now the age ranges have nowhere else to expand. The incoming crop of 13yr olds isn't big enough to replace the already-jaded 15yr olds who are getting out.


Slower growth is no problem to me, from a player's perspective, and I don't see it being an issue for established & healthy businesses (unless they were banking expansion plans on continued double-digit growth). There will be adjustments in the industry, and the strong will survive.

[PumpPlayer]

The real issue behind the change in the industry is the FIELDS!

With the number of players today, you would think that there would be larger fields to cater to them. When you think about it, though, we're left with local fields with one or two courses catering to a handful of players each. Obviously speedball fields are easier to build and maintain and encourage more liberal paint use. That doesn't mean that large woodsball fields aren't out there, they're just harder to find in some areas. Especially those areas where property values and taxes are high. The nearest local field to me is actually built in a swamp because that's the only place that was economically feasable because homes couldn't be built there. Land costs are high, thus speedball fields are becoming more common. As a result, the sport is becoming less newbie-friendly. Large fields are the lifeblood of the industry and they are few and far between (Plus it costs at least $35/day to rent equipment and play there - that's a lot of money, people.)

Think of another sport with high land area requirements, expensive equipment, a 'stigma' associated with the professionals of the sport and an ever-growing popularity... Golf!

You can easily spend $100 for a round of golf without even trying. If you use two sleeves of balls at $10 a pop plus $50 worth of greens fees and add in other expenses, it's not cheap. A good set of clubs can well exceed the $2000 mark and that's not even counting shoes, clothes and other items needed to play. With high land requirements and everything else thrown in, it looks a LOT like paintball. Only it isn't. What's the difference? ADVERTIZING!

Golf is advertized to a demographic that has money and is willing to spend it even if just for the status that playing golf offers, whether they are good or not. Golf has heroes as well and an international competition between them. Paintball has neither advertizing nor heroes. Ask anyone on the street if they know who *tourney player name* is and they'll look at you like a deer in headlights. Then ask them if they know who Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson is. Ask them if they can remember anything about a Tippmann 98c. Now ask them if they know what a 'Big Bertha' is.


So ok, why compare a small, basically fledgling sport like Paintball with something like golf that has hundreds of years of history and a hundred times greater market size? To both point the way and also give hope. Golf is a rediculous game that nobody in their right mind should want to play. Even those who play the sport fully admit this. Yet it's amazingly popular and turns billions of dollars in revenue every year. It could be argued that paintball could easily grow to such popularity. There's hope because if golf can do it, paintball certainly can!

More poignantly, we need to know how to bring the sport to that level. It's going to take one thing and one thing only: Good advertizing. The market is out there and waiting. The only advertizing for paintball is through paintball magazines and paintball-related websites. More people know about paintball through the sporting goods section at Wal-Mart than they do from a magazine ad. It's only going to take one brave company to stand up, take the lead and advertize sub-$100 full player's packages of decent quality through a large medium.

Sports Illustrated ran an article on the history of paintball a few months ago. It was a fantastic, well-written article and got the reader very interested in paintball. Good publicity, you may say. But what surprised me is that there was not one single advertizement for a paintball field, company or manufacturer in the entire magazine. I understand that an ad in SI is very pricey, but it would only take one. In fact, all it would have taken is a line that read, "For information on buying paintball equipment, go to www.______.com"

The industry missed a big opportunity there and perhaps, just perhaps, it's not quite time yet. If we want paintball to grow, like anything else it needs to be advertized. When the time comes, we'll see an advertizement for a paintball company in a national-exposure format. On that day, paintball's popularity will explode once again. Until it is advertized widely, paintball will experience the same problems it always has.

[UThomas]

But now the age ranges have nowhere else to expand

Exactly, which is why paintball companies now have to rely on market penetration instead of just market growth. As such, they are competing against each other much more directly and we will see a more companies that were successful in the growth phase fall by the wayside if they can't drive their costs down and make themselves more attractive to the wider public.

[Lohman446]

Golf isn't a fair historical comparison. Without the support of Franklin Delanoar (sp) Roosevelt (I think it was FDR, I know it was a former president) we would not have the number of public clubs we have today, with easy access for all and providing a spot for most anyone who wants to golf can without a being part of a "club" FDR was fundamental in putting golf where it was today, I just don't see any wildly popular president investing political capital to get paintball to that point. Besides golf was already established... FDR just helped make it a sport that more of America could play. Its not like there is a "lower economic scale" that we could target well with paintball.

Just my opinion... it could be very wrong of course

[PBX Ronin 23]

Nice post PumpPlayer.

UThomas, I agree with you from an economic standpoint, reliance on market growth seem tenous at best at this moment and penetrating new markets would be the way to go.

But what new markets can we possibly look at? The Pacific Rim paintball market seems to be developing and the region can flex some serious economic muscle. The Latin American market seems to be growing as well but the impetus seems to come from the wealthy segment of the local economy. Can we transcend class and economic barriers in the developing countries in Latin America and make the sport more readily accessible to the masses? That, in and of itself, is a tough question to answer. The European market is still underdeveloped compared to the American market and should represent a growth area in the next several years. Besides those three regions, I really don't see any other regions in the world worth pursuing by virtue of each regions economic health.

Perhaps the current bevy of paintball companies can be whittled down to the few who have the foresight and the capital resources to reach out and penetrate these underdeveloped markets. We see Dye establishing two new outposts abroad. NPS has further entrenched themselves in the European, Latin American and Asian markets. I'm sure K2 and the other big boys see this too. Invariably, the industry will have a global impact in terms of where consumer spending will be directed to in the forecoming years. But can the industry sustain their current levels domestically? That's the question that begs to be answered.

What are your thoughts on this?

[Tunaman]

Well the way i see it, mags suck...and they chop too. And they aren't as fast as any other marker...so they are dead...like the rest of the paintball industry. :D

Tell that to the imaginary postman that brings me all of these imaginary mags that no one uses any more...because they suck...and they chop...and they arent fast enough.

The paintball world should open their eyes a bit. Still totally jammed up here...as always.
Now...if i only had a MQ VALVE!!!! :cuss: :D ;)

[hardr0ck68]

Paintball is not a fun sport to get into anymore! When i started their were always "old timers" at the feild willing to help with advice, spare parts, tips and whatnot. As a newbi i was treated well, and you know what, after they shot me (generally only once per elimination....find that today!) in the dead box they shook my hand and chatted with me.

So i got hooked, this was a sceen i loved, good people, good times, and lots of excitement...fast forward 8 years (yes this was only 8 years ago...sigh). Think about how you see newbis treated? Over shot by some "agg" idiot who himself was a newbi untill mommy and daddy bought him a ramping marker for x-mas. Then after the game its all about bragging to your buddies, and sucking eachothers ====) . Todays paintball is an "X-game" with all the bull crap "agg" junk that is attached.

On top of all that, it seems the biggest companys seem hell bent on making paintball cheap for the top 1% of ballers at an extra cost to the bottom 99%. I think the idea is they show some people making money at the game so hundreds of thousands more will bankrupt themselves trying to reach that level. Instead they might try to sell a decent case of paint for $20....then you might see some growth.

[PBX Ronin 23]

I fell ya Rocco....I feel ya.

The close-knit-ness of the paintball community has somewhat deminished in a lot of ways. I know where you're coming from.

[UThomas]

, reliance on market growth seem tenous at best at this moment and penetrating new markets would be the way to go.

I meant more from the perspective of: if the market is not growing (or growing slowly), the market penetration will be what people fight over (aka: market share). So this will drive companies more directly against each other that might not have been before when the pie was growing for everyone.

Foreign expansion is one option, though paintball is a damn expensive sport for a lot of countries (USA! USA! USA! :) ) I'd say that firms need to do market studies and find where the growth is and what the users stats are. I personally don't know. Could be that 70% of the volume is done at the under $300 category, I have no idea. But customer and market knowledge; knowing how they make decisions and what they value, are going to be critical in a time where technology is all "good enough" and there is little true differentiation.

Just my 2c. I'd be curious to see some true industry studies.

[Lohman446]

, reliance on market growth seem tenous at best at this moment and penetrating new markets would be the way to go.

I meant more from the perspective of: if the market is not growing (or growing slowly), the market penetration will be what people fight over (aka: market share). So this will drive companies more directly against each other that might not have been before when the pie was growing for everyone.

Foreign expansion is one option, though paintball is a damn expensive sport for a lot of countries (USA! USA! USA! :) ) I'd say that firms need to do market studies and find where the growth is and what the users stats are. I personally don't know. Could be that 70% of the volume is done at the under $300 category, I have no idea. But customer and market knowledge; knowing how they make decisions and what they value, are going to be critical in a time where technology is all "good enough" and there is little true differentiation.

Just my 2c. I'd be curious to see some true industry studies.

My impression of paitnball in the past has been a "guessing" game as to what will sell. I am not sure that there have been that many industry studies, perhaps simple looks at what sold in the past and making an educated guess from there. It just seems to me, well that paintball companies are not running a sound business plan. Sure they survived during years of phenomal and abnormal growth and expansion, can they survive if it is not there, and perhaps a slight shrinkage even due to changing economic circumstances. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems that very few of the manufacturers (the big names) have run a good long term business plan. As market forces move them away from high percentage markup on the top end of the line... and shrink the gap between top and bottom line will they be able to survive? Another issue.. where is marketing? I see more marketting for golf balls than I do for paintball markers. There is no "household" name when it comes to paintball. I'm surprised that seemingly market savvy customers have not tried to move into the marketplace harder, and expand it. Instead they seem to be content with fighting over the existing market.

[UThomas]

guessing" game as to what will sell. I am not sure that there have been that many industry studies, perhaps simple looks at what sold in the past and making an educated guess from there.

I don't know. I think that in the early growth stages of the industry it was intuitive what people were interested in. Faster guns, anti chop features, etc. Now that that has topped out to a large extent, now comes the hard part. When there is not a clear technology path, when industry growth has slowed, and when prices continue to drop. That is the challenge faced by small to mid level companies. Looks like shops like AGD are going niche market (scenarios) like Palmers did a while ago. I mean if you think about it, it is amazing to me that Palmers actually exists in the industry right now (and that is not a knock on them, actually it is a compliment).

Sure they survived during years of phenomal and abnormal growth and expansion, can they survive if it is not there, and perhaps a slight shrinkage even due to changing economic circumstances

Yea, thats a good question. You want to position yourself as a dominant industry player (Brass Eagle) to really make sure you survive the shakeout, otherwise who knows? Can you adapt the product line from the early adopters of the 90's to the early and late majority of the 2000's? Depends on if you know what they value, and are able to drive your costs down (because that is one thing we KNOW they value).

Maybe I'm wrong but it seems that very few of the manufacturers (the big names) have run a good long term business plan.

They haven't had to because they could rely on R&D and fat industry growth, the former of which is experiencing diminishing returns these days, the later also slowing substantially (I think, again, I haven't seen any studies on it).

There is no "household" name when it comes to paintball.

I don't know, companies like DYE seem to be doing a pretty good job at selling the sizzle and not the stake. You can tell companies like that are the ones that are going to be successful. They may not be the highest tech, but they seem to be in tune with the customer and marketing focused. Of course they are also a bit of a trend, so maybe they will go the way of "NO FEAR" shirts when everybody else can match their performance.

Though it begs the question, Smart Parts has effectively been doing negative marketing the last year or two, yet I imagine their sales are fine. What do customers really value these days? Lots of inexpensive ION's are getting sold...

[master_alexander]

now i havent read all of this, but from what i think...


the automag has been around for around 20 years. There have been so much advancements on this technology and the automag has still remained a great marker. But then again, the master will eventually be passed up. I think that this master (automag) has come to it's time, not yet exactly. it will always remain great in the eyes of thoes who understand, mostly in thoswe who play "old school style". And have been using them for years.

[Jeffy-CanCon]

...

UThomas, I agree with you from an economic standpoint, reliance on market growth seem tenous at best at this moment and penetrating new markets would be the way to go.

But what new markets can we possibly look at? The Pacific Rim ... Latin America ... The European market ... Besides those three regions, I really don't see any other regions in the world worth pursuing by virtue of each regions economic health.

...

What are your thoughts on this?

Is there enough money in the Pacific Rim, latin America and in Europe to allow people to play afford paintball? Most people there have a finite amount of disposable income. Given the per-capita GDP of most of those countries, paintball is really only affordable to their middle class. Still, those regions have a combined population of a billion or more, so the potential is there, even if the target demographic is a small percentage.

The few people I've talked to who played in Europe (RKL, manike) say that there is very little regular-recreational play there. People rent occasionally, or play tourneys. That would have to change, I think.

[PBX Ronin 23]

UThomas, in either case, both interpretations for your statement seems to apply.

Market penetration may also be construed that reaching out to non-related industries where the target demographics may be identical. There's always been a strong co-relation in the past between Dungeons and Dragons players and paintballers.

Perhaps it's time for the industry to search and develop such markets and to 'penetrate' them effectively.

[voodooaddict]

Paintball is not a fun sport to get into anymore! When i started their were always "old timers" at the feild willing to help with advice, spare parts, tips and whatnot. As a newbi i was treated well, and you know what, after they shot me (generally only once per elimination....find that today!) in the dead box they shook my hand and chatted with me.

At 26 I find myself an "Old timer" now (10 years of play). I do most of the above. Give tips for those that look receptive to it. Also talk with the players after I tagged them out ... and make sure that I didn't over shoot. I play rec ball excusivly at the fields because I enjoy the mentoring. And find it rewarding and relaxing after a long week of 12+h workdays. I leave tourney paintball for the other guys.

This is one of the reasons why I still use the good Ol VL 2000 loaders. Over 50% of the people out there are new to the sport. I don't have any need to lay 15+bps onto thier bunkers. I want to help build confidence in new players ... not demoralize them.

[Codekevin0403]

paintball has finally reached it's pinnacle after 20 years...well isn't it about time?

In order to compete today, the prices for a good marker can reach over a grand. That's steep for most of the population of the U.S.! jeez. It's guns like the ion's and wrath's that keep the sport alive in my opinion.

[PBX Ronin 23]

paintball has finally reached it's pinnacle after 20 years...well isn't it about time?

In order to compete today, the prices for a good marker can reach over a grand. That's steep for most of the population of the U.S.! jeez. It's guns like the ion's and wrath's that keep the sport alive in my opinion.

I agree. Maybe the Wrath and the Ion are part of the industry's future wave.

[shartley]

I agree. Maybe the Wrath and the Ion are part of the industry's future wave.
I think they are part of the wave, but not THE wave.

I think paintball has become so diverse that smart business folks will be able to do well in a wide range of “niches”. I don’t think any one part of the industry will be able to claim supreme dominance of the sport, or one style of game will be able to claim they ARE paintball and the rest are just “offshoots”.

[BlindeSeher]

First off, I'd like to heap some serious kudos on AO for having such an enriching discussion on the subject. Most paintball forums (e.g. pbn) just don't have the brainpower and/or are too washed out by idiot fodder to pull it off. Just seeing that people were really squeezing the grey matter somewhere in the paintball world made my day.

_______________________________

I'm with Shartley on this one. It seems like everyone has all but filled in the grave for small businesses, but some of us aren't nearly in that coffin. Paintball is becoming like most any other business, where someone willing to really work can scratch out a living, but isn't likely to wake up wealthy. Niches exist, markets remain undefiled by Mr. Big. There is yet hope. But of course, those fat-cats that have grown too big for their britches may see the salad days wane (or are doing so already). Maturation is on its way, and there may be some casualties. I, for one, love to see the fattened giants fall.

I'm 19 and several months into a partnership company selling paintball gear and doing small-scale custom and repair work. It may help that I live in the Buffalo area, where paintball is almost purely "outlaw ball" in the woods and in abandoned warehouses. Aside from a few low-grade fields (e.g. Tsunami, for any locals), the business world hasn't done much with paintball in my area. As a result, we're dealing with quite the untapped market. That said, I would have to agree that some of the hype has died off in the non-paintball world. After all, when the game shows up on "I Love the 90s" (and yes, I'm ashamed for having watched that terrible show), you know that it's dead as a "trend". Which is good. Because a trend culture is a false paradise, and not a good place to be building a livelihood.

I, for one, would love to see the sport level-off a bit. Or even a lot. When it shifts into a more stable, sustainable form, it makes it much easier for my little start-up to plan for the future, and lessens the chance of our getting sunk by a sudden burst of the bubble. I'd rather see the thing pop now and move on from there.

Ah yes, and here comes my thoughts on the culture of speedball and its relation to entry-level players. Situation: Little Jimmy shows up at a local field for his first day of play. Using his rented Piranha R6 with velocity set at a cool 265, he should be set for a nice, friendly introduction to the sport. Suddenly, a sinister figure emerges from behind the netting. Decked out in his fire-engine red Dye paintball clothing, with matching gear bag, this Timmy-toting behemoth is ready to go with over half a case strapped to his flank and a mean glint in his eye. His shot is rubbish, but sheer volume will take care of that. Sir Shoots-a-Lot proceeds to light up anything and everything on the field, including Little Jimmy, who winds up clutching some paint-soaked air bag like a bleeding doughboy reaching for his mother as his world goes dark. To make matters worse, our villain flaunts his "conquests" in the dead zone like a rapist showing off a scrapbook of his victims. Does Little Jimmy want to play again? Ha! Little Jimmy has been in therapy for months now, and still screams at night after having nightmares about that fateful day.

The above is a (perhaps slightly dramatized) account of what I witnessed while putzing away a rather wasted evening at an indoor "speedball" field. Call it a real-life corroboration of what a number of others have already said in this thread. Here's what my years of experience have not only taught me, but confirmed over and over: there are some very unhealthy things going on in the more-more-more culture of contemporary speedball. I do not hate speedball as an idea, though I'll always be a woodsball player. Really, it's just a format, nothing more. What I don't like is the direction that many of its adherents have taken. For the love of God and all that is holy, could we all stop worrying that a gun can "only" do 15 bps and just have a good time? The grim reality for a nation infected with the virus of suburban sprawl is that access to woodsball will only diminish with time. But if speedball, as it is now, is the future of paintball, then I see a problem. The electronic gun, which seems to have been the most damaging development in paintball since Smart Parts sold what last bits of a soul it had left and used the profits to pay for an "agg" legal team, has all but taken over. Cheating is seen as "part of the game". Fights in-game? Expected. Genocide? Ok, I went a bit too far on that last one.

As a personal opinion, if mainstream paintball were to collapse entirely, I'd be glad to watch that city burn. It was built on sand, anyhow. When the bourgeois state reaches expiration, the historical inevitability steps in and tears it down. I'd say it's high time for that paintball revolution to come. Who's with me!? :argh: Ah, if only real life were so exciting. No, I'd say the gradual trend toward normalization and maturity is what's in the cards for paintball. Which is fine by me.

[PBX Ronin 23]

I'd say the gradual trend toward normalization and maturity is what's in the cards for paintball. Which is fine by me.
Well said.

[Jeffy-CanCon]

Excellent post, BlindSeher. And if you don't mind me saying so, even more impressive for coming from a 19 year old.