Is paintball at (or near) a peak

[Lohman446]

Honest question. Paintball has shown explosive growth through the years, and that growth has slowed. Most people have attributed that slowing to a normal shift in business models. However, it seems paintball maybe on the verge of a contraction. The "roots" are closing receding. More and more stores are failing, and fields. Some of them have been there for some time, and they don't seem to be replaced as quickly or surely as they once had been.

Paintball is on TV, and the world of high end tournament paintball is being exposed to the masses. Does this help? Without getting into the cheating that is paintball, or the attitude issues look at what people are exposed to. Does that honestly make some kid want to try it? Look how good the people are who do it, and frankly the people at the field look the part when they show up.

My question is, could we be at a peak. Not the peak, I have no doubt that there will be a resurgance, but is paintball at the peak of a recession in growth?

[Steelrat]

30%? Yikes! Too bad we can't undo whats already been done.

[cyrus-the-virus]

Thats why I'm buying a mech single trigger classic mag, and an AEDES (if/when it comes out)

after that a PGP and I'll be done really.

[The_Leech]

Asked, and answered. Tom said it best...

http://www.automags.org/forums/showthread.php?t=180645&page=4

replying to this post. I honestly dont think tom knew what he was talking about with this. Im not meaning any disrespect or anything. Just............ he thinks Nascar is keeping fans.

Nascar is loosing fan base by large amounts due to how boring it has become. (thats why they came out with Ricky Bobby to try to save interest in Nascar, but that movie sucked miserably. I miss it when Will Ferrel was actually funny. MORE COWBELL FOOLS. Anyways...)


Thats my 2 cents on the nascar thing.



Anyways, Paintball, as a sport is on a decline in the media. Woodsball is barley ever seen, and if seen it's not well done. Speedball is loosing viewing because ESPN just sucks as a company. They dont even shoot their own footage, they buy footage off of other people and for unfair prices. They do huge lowballs, thus the people who shot and edited the film dont want to sell it to them.

Anyways. Paintball is trapped in a media bubble due to this. ESPN shows only games from a few years ago and rules have changed since then. Thus, the professional level of the sport is not spreading.

You talk to someone who hasnt ever played paintball, what do they think of? Woodsball. Thats due to speedball not spreading. Woodsball doesnt need the media for its the way paintball started. But for both aspects to survive, both need to be adervisted and shown regularly. We still do have a long ways to go to have it actually be shown allot more.

It indeed IS BIGGER than allot of sports you see on ESPN2, but it isnt shown as much. I would never classify poker as a sport. It sure is fun, but does it require any real movement or strategy? Not really. Spelling bees are not sports. god no. thats just a bunch of smart children. Sports were for the kids who were smart not acadmeically but in the ways that actually matter.....real life smarts...like street smarts or whatever its called.

[robnix]

Woodsball needs a good survivor type reality show on something like the Outdoor Network. Split into teams, scenario game challenges, vote teammates out at the end of the show, big prize at the end for the winning player.

[The_Leech]

well..it did. Or was it NBC. both now that i think of it...but not NBC...it was UPN

OLN had X-Fire. A Sci-fi paintball show that pitted a Spec Ops team against baddies in a crazy storyline. It used paintball stuff and all that. The problem was it wasnt really "paintball"


UPN had a show that wasnt really paintball but it was a survival game where a group of people were on an island being hunted by some guys with paintball guns. The group of people had to get from point A to point B by trying to dodge booby traps and signals that made the hunters find them.


Yeah....

But they should have a more actual paintball game one.

[punkncat]

I would have to say yes that paintball is over the peak and falling.

Given that there have been no improvements in performance in several years and the prices on used equipment is lower than ever there is no reaon to buy new, unless you are going with something disposable like the Ion.
With reduced sales in profitable items more manufacturers will go away. As they go away there will be less selection, and less availability of parts for the markers made by the ones who have closed, or even ones that are open and offer no support for their older lines...

A lot of people become quickly disgusted with the current atmosphere within the game. And its easy to be so with ramping and cheating becoming so prevelent. Its no fun at all to go to a field with the new clone you bought at Wal Mart and getting your *** handed to you by everyone there shooting(insert name here) ramping markers.

With the average age of players down around 12-15 years of age or so now, that enters a whole other world of crap you have to deal with....

Unless you are very lucky, what made paintball what it was years ago is gone from the local scene. Even those who love the sport the way I and many of you do its getting harder and harder to bring yourself to dealing with the BS.

[mobsterboy]

Is _________ at (or near) a peak?

Well, fill in the blank here with whatever you want actually. Paintball, cars, cellphones, mp3 players, war, tv's, the list goes on. Yet they all survive

[lather]

Anybody have any actual numbers or source for this alleged downturn?


If true, a 30% drop in sales could be interperted as more people are a bit more market savvy and not jumping feet first into new marker hype---realizing their 03 shocker, Viking or DM3 performs just as well as a DM8, NXT shocker, or Angel 1. Or their apache or egg loader shoots fast enough for them, and they dont NEED to have a 23 bps Halo or Vlocity. Who knows?

Heck the price of gas could also be a factor--a lot of people need to drive an hour + to get to their field.

I dont see anything to get alarmed about, a huge upsurge followed by a sharp decline and an evening out is a usual trend for any industryu--why should paintball be an exception?

[kruger]

At my field, I have seen a surge of players that have never played before. Also, there is an increase of speedball players that are fed up with the speedball thing. I am a scenario/woodsball only field. People tell me that the attitude of the average speedball players is the reason that they come to my field. I think that a lot of people are just trying to get back to what made them want to play in the first place, just for the fun of it. No tournaments, no peer pressure, and no attitude. Just for the fun of it. Woodsball and scenario ball fill those things for them. As to a 30% fall in sales, yes, I can see that. Today, there is no reason to buy a 1000 dollar marker when a 250 marker can perform just as well. The higher priced markers are for those that feel the need to impress others or those that want to have the cutting edge. Just like in drag racing, its fairly easy to hit the 6 sec. bracket, but when you try to start shaving those 1/10sec off of that time, thats when you start running into the big bucks. And people dont really see the need to shave off those "1/10th sec."

[robnix]

At my field, I have seen a surge of players that have never played before. Also, there is an increase of speedball players that are fed up with the speedball thing. I am a scenario/woodsball only field. People tell me that the attitude of the average speedball players is the reason that they come to my field. I think that a lot of people are just trying to get back to what made them want to play in the first place, just for the fun of it. No tournaments, no peer pressure, and no attitude. Just for the fun of it. Woodsball and scenario ball fill those things for them. As to a 30% fall in sales, yes, I can see that. Today, there is no reason to buy a 1000 dollar marker when a 250 marker can perform just as well. The higher priced markers are for those that feel the need to impress others or those that want to have the cutting edge. Just like in drag racing, its fairly easy to hit the 6 sec. bracket, but when you try to start shaving those 1/10sec off of that time, thats when you start running into the big bucks. And people dont really see the need to shave off those "1/10th sec."

Are the sales numbers we're discussing money that's generated at fields, or money from marker and accessory purchases?

[SCpoloRicker]

I'd honestly say no. I've mentioned that I play to co-workers from time to time, and I've generally found that most people are familiar with the game.

/played since '95

[jenarelJAM]

Sports were for the kids who were smart not acadmeically but in the ways that actually matter...
Sorry to digress, but I feel the need to argue this point. Maybe competitive sports are for those who aren't academically smart, but academics do actually matter. Most people play sports as a release, as a game, recreation. To make the generalized statement that sports are for people who are smart, but aren't educated, and that education doesn't matter is untrue, insulting, and stupid.
I understand that you're trying to say that the term "sport" refers to physical activity, but I don't think anyone classifies a spelling bee as a sport. Paintball is a sport. And many people I know (non paintballers)have seen paintball championships, and when they hear I play, they say, "That sounds so fun!" or some such line. Paintball is seeping out to the general population.

[Steelrat]

I'd honestly say no. I've mentioned that I play to co-workers from time to time, and I've generally found that most people are familiar with the game.

/played since '95

BUT, do they think the game is running around the woods in camoflage?

[BuyMyMag]

I think it's nearing it's peak, but I also believe that it will fall down the other side of the hill. I know you said not to mention people's attitudes, or cheating, but I think these are two important factors of how many people will continue to play. I've seen recreational players go out for a day of fun just to get ragged on by the tournament players, and I think that such ******** bring a negative feel to paintball. I know that if they treated me like that on my first day of play that I wouldn't be interested in continuing play. I think that there will be a point where people are tired of cheating, general *******ry (Is that a word?) on the field, and they will just stop playing. I know that's what did it for me.. I used to be an every weekend guy, but it's like these immature kids have taken over the sport, and it's not as fun as it used to be.

[The_Leech]

Sorry to digress, but I feel the need to argue this point. Maybe competitive sports are for those who aren't academically smart, but academics do actually matter. Most people play sports as a release, as a game, recreation. To make the generalized statement that sports are for people who are smart, but aren't educated, and that education doesn't matter is untrue, insulting, and stupid.
I understand that you're trying to say that the term "sport" refers to physical activity, but I don't think anyone classifies a spelling bee as a sport. Paintball is a sport. And many people I know (non paintballers)have seen paintball championships, and when they hear I play, they say, "That sounds so fun!" or some such line. Paintball is seeping out to the general population.


i dont think you understood what i ment. When you play sports, your not using academics. It wasnt made for some kid who can do math at the most amazing levels. Its ment for everyone...anyone can play a sport if they tried. You dont have to be smart.

But academics....lets not get into it. But lets just say i ment ways that actually matter means- things people might end up using everyday. How often will i need to talk about the Japanese Invasion of Alaska in WW2? Yeah sure its good to know, but will i ever need to talk about it when im writing up tax forms? Never. Unless they make a "Knowing WW2 tax"


But yeah....anyways... O.O

[Lohman446]

i dont think you understood what i ment. When you play sports, your not using academics. It wasnt made for some kid who can do math at the most amazing levels. Its ment for everyone...anyone can play a sport if they tried. You dont have to be smart.


But you have to be smart to excel at sports. Anyone can do academeics too, not everyone can be good at it. Anyone can play sports, not everyone can be good at them. I'm sorry, its referred to as the genetic lottery for a reason.

[paintballfiend]

I agreed that paintball blew up too fast and too soon, but not at it's peak. How are we to know, you could see paintball in the Olympics 10 years from now. The problem may be that paintball is TOO popular. Everyone says the old days were the best days. If paintball's popularity is declining, we could bring back the good old days.

[Lohman446]

Is _________ at (or near) a peak?

Well, fill in the blank here with whatever you want actually. Paintball, cars, cellphones, mp3 players, war, tv's, the list goes on. Yet they all survive


The question is not if it would survive, the question if it was at a peak in popularity, followed by a decline.

[The_Leech]

But you have to be smart to excel at sports. Anyone can do academeics too, not everyone can be good at it. Anyone can play sports, not everyone can be good at them. I'm sorry, its referred to as the genetic lottery for a reason.


But everyone can be at some sort of sport in some way or fashion.

[Lohman446]

But everyone can be at some sort of sport in some way or fashion.

Be good at it? No...

The difference is that in sports we don't let the best play with the worst. Once you find players of your level you can play and enjoy the game regardless of skill level. Of course one must then question how well it fits the definition of sport.

[shartley]

I think those in the industry just got spoiled. They cry about a 30% decrease in sales, but fail to state that they are coming down from record high levels of sales. And a 30% drop in sales does not mean they are not still making a profit or doing well. It just says that their sales dropped 30%. It is the old numbers game to make things look the way they want them to look. Industries often have booms; and almost always when those booms end and sales return to a more natural level we see companies act as if the sky is falling and they are hurting.

We see the same games played in other industries where they claim that they are failing to meet projected profit levels and they have taken a drop in profits from the previous year. Then you do the math and see they are far from hurting and in fact still making headway. They are just not making as much as they WANT to make, or HOPED to make.

This of course does not apply to ALL companies, and some may truly be hurting. But the big boys? No. Sorry, I don’t buy it. Not with all the new products coming out and the availability of products period for those who want them.

Also paintball as an activity ebbs and flows and is influenced by many factors. Some fields do very well while others are not, and different parts of the country are going well while others are not. Anyone who has even followed the growth of the sport and even just participation over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, can attest to many rises and falls in popularity. But in the end the numbers are up overall for the sport. And that means there is a customer base out there for businesses. GO GET THEM. ;)

Is paintball reaching its peak? No, I don’t think so. I think we are in for more good times and more tight times. But I think the sport is strong enough to weather those tight times and is not going anywhere.

[The_Leech]

Be good at it? No...

The difference is that in sports we don't let the best play with the worst. Once you find players of your level you can play and enjoy the game regardless of skill level. Of course one must then question how well it fits the definition of sport.

yes they can be good.

This is proving to be a very good convo. Im glad you aint flaiming me like the people on PBN. But anyways.

They be good in anyway shape or form. Anyone can learn to do something as long as they try hard enough physically.

Sports is no exception. Yes they may have different skill levels, but if you take the time to practice you get better at it. Anyone can play a sport as long as they try.

[Lohman446]

I don't know. Go to a non-division 1 A school. Some of the athletes there try just as hard but will not make it because they are missing height. There are certain genetic conditions that predisposition someone to be good at athletics. That being said, even college level academics a lack of natural talent can normally be overcome by hard work.

[dahoeb]

There are certain genetic conditions that predisposition someone to be good at athletics.
muggsy bogues. one of (if not THE) shortest player to play in the NBA at only 5'3.

[Lohman446]

muggsy bogues. one of (if the THE) shortest player to play in the NBA at only 5'3.


As with anything there are exceptions. If I'm 5'3" there is really no way I am playing wide receiver or CB at the highest levels.

[dahoeb]

As with anything there are exceptions. If I'm 5'3" there is really no way I am playing wide receiver or CB at the highest levels.
Rudy Reuttiger of Notre Dame was only 5'6 and 165lbs. ;) (don't know his position though...)

He didn't go to the highest level, but who knows. those are exceptions, but if other people trained like them and had the drive like them, why couldn't they have similar success?

You can call those people exceptions, but I think they're more or less proof of what can be done if youre ambitious or passionate enough.

But different sports are a little harder to make up for predisposed disadvantages though, (eg. football) which i think is what you're really getting at. but not impossible.

[SCpoloRicker]

I like dahoeb's reasoning.

"Well I can think of an exception!!1"

/dual sport AA in high school
//D1 NCAA, off the bench at SC

[Jeffy-CanCon]

On the original topic...

I think Yes.

Like Tom, I have heard from industry people that business is way down. From manufacturers and field owners both. 20-30% from recent peak sales, I've heard. Industry wide that adds up to $300,000,000. Not small change!

Part of it might be tech and BPS and the general shallowing of the learning curve. Ten years ago 15bps was an amazing skill possessed by a very few players. Now its standard for $250 at the pro-shop. The effect of that is that you no longer have to be in the tourney scene to get lit up with 20+ balls. Most casual renters who are on the receiving end of that sort of punishment simply don't come back.

I suspect the actual culprit is demographics. When I first played fifteen years ago you needed to be 18, or 16 with parental consent. It was rare to see anyone under 18 playing. In the last seven-eight years, age limits have dropped to 10. :eek: Most of paintball's recent phenomenal growth has been a result of those changing standards, I bet. And now there is nowhere else to go for new players. And demographically, age cohorts are getting smaller. I.e., there are fewer 9 year olds to be next years Newbies than there are 15 year-old players who are ready to quit.

[dahoeb]

I like dahoeb's reasoning.

"Well I can think of an exception!!1"

/dual sport AA in high school
//D1 NCAA, off the bench at SC
the exceptions just support the point i was making.
the point was that most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it ;) some sports just require more effort from the player than others.
maybe you just didn't read the whole post? :tard:

either way, this is all off topic of the original thread topic.

[SCpoloRicker]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.

[Lohman446]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.


You have to add the term at a high level to make it fully uncomprehendable.

[Tool-of-death]

On the original topic...

I think Yes.

Like Tom, I have heard from industry people that business is way down. From manufacturers and field owners both. 20-30% from recent peak sales, I've heard. Industry wide that adds up to $300,000,000. Not small change!

Part of it might be tech and BPS and the general shallowing of the learning curve. Ten years ago 15bps was an amazing skill possessed by a very few players. Now its standard for $250 at the pro-shop. The effect of that is that you no longer have to be in the tourney scene to get lit up with 20+ balls. Most casual renters who are on the receiving end of that sort of punishment simply don't come back.

I suspect the actual culprit is demographics. When I first played fifteen years ago you needed to be 18, or 16 with parental consent. It was rare to see anyone under 18 playing. In the last seven-eight years, age limits have dropped to 10. :eek: Most of paintball's recent phenomenal growth has been a result of those changing standards, I bet. And now there is nowhere else to go for new players. And demographically, age cohorts are getting smaller. I.e., there are fewer 9 year olds to be next years Newbies than there are 15 year-old players who are ready to quit.

30% of 300,000,000 90,000,000

300,000,000 - 90,000,000= 210,000,000

I don't think the big guy's are feeling it right yet, + don't forget about gas prices, at a low of 3$ pergallon and a high of 6$ some people have to drive and hour or more to get to a field.

+ don't forget the "My way or the high way" attitude of most paintballers, esspecily but not limited to the people on specialopspaintball and pbnation. Also when a first time rental player get's on to the field with his procarbine and get's shot 3 4 5 6 7 8 times by some guy with a highend tourny marker (or a newb with no trigger control and an ion) he/she may or may not ever want to come back to play.

Also paintball is a sport that if you gave ollie lang a procarbine and some random person at the field a procarbine they would be evenly matched. ollie lang will most likliy win because of his experience , but it would still be an interesting match.

Most people (I said most not all) Hide their lack of skill behind a high ROF and their 5+4+5 packs. ROF brought down the prices of paint, but it also lowered the amount of skill you need to get 15+ BPS.

[dahoeb]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.

When someone says "compete at a high level", i think NFL or Olympics or state championships. I played sports in high school (never went state unfortunately) and played sports for the base team. so i have played sports and competed.

when i say "excel" i mean that the person is competitive and pretty good; not olympic quality. i probably shouldve been more clear.

I agree that it does sound a little silly to think that anyone can compete at the highest level of a sport (ie. nfl...). but ive seen too many people go from fat"butts" on second string jv to speed demons on the varsity team to someone CAN'T at least be good and competitive at it.

[Lohman446]

When someone says "compete at a high level", i think NFL or Olympics or state championships. I played sports in high school (never went state unfortunately) and played sports for the base team. so i have played sports and competed.

when i say "excel" i mean that the person is competitive and pretty good; not olympic quality. i probably shouldve been more clear.

I agree that it does sound a little silly to think that anyone can compete at the highest level of a sport. but ive seen too many people go from fat"butts" on second string jv to speed demons on the varsity team to NOT think they can at least be good and competitive at it.

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

[teufelhunden]

30% of 300,000,000 90,000,000

300,000,000 - 90,000,000= 210,000,000


I believe paintball is an industry larger than $300M/year, and so I'm lead to believe he was stating that 30% of $1B is $300M.



Also paintball is a sport that if you gave ollie lang a procarbine and some random person at the field a procarbine they would be evenly matched. ollie lang will most likliy win because of his experience , but it would still be an interesting match.

No way. Real life example of why this is inane: I spent my days playing tournament ball with 18 bps on my fingers and 3/4 a case on my back. Same crap as Lohman, I quit tournament ball. Since then, I've only went out a few times, only using my VSC Phantom [for the unitiated, that means I have a pump gun with 12g CO2 cartridges and 10+1 balls in my gun]. Given my skill at playing the game, me + Phantom was generally a superior combination against most in the woods, where I chose to play. To call paintball a game of equipment and equipment only, as you did, is way off base. You're either new to paintball or completely ignorant to anything other than spray and pray, but if you're going to try and make a decent point about Ollie Lang being nearly evenly matched with some random you plucked out of JimBob's Paintball Country given equal equipment, you're out of your mind.


Most people (I said most not all) Hide their lack of skill behind a high ROF and their 5+4+5 packs. ROF brought down the prices of paint, but it also lowered the amount of skill you need to get 15+ BPS.

Like I said, you must be new to paintball. Were you around before every kid had an Ion or a Spyder Imagine? How about when the Impulse was a top end tournament gun cuz it was as fast as anything else but lighter... and could run CO2? In those days, when people didn't have 143882 firing modes, there was obviously a skill gap between players, and there's no equipment to blame it on. Even today, when half of the 12 year olds at the rec field have *insertgunofthemonthhere* with Halo B's and HPA, you can tell who can play and who can't. While the game has changed, skill hasn't. BPS doesn't make equal skill, and having insane BPS on tap doesn't make skill any less important.

[SCpoloRicker]

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

You're being glib, Lohman. You're being glib.

[dahoeb]

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

eehhh, whatever. i guess i just wasn't clear enough in the beginning.