State of the Industry

[RogueFactor]

Spoke with an industry insider today that said paintball sales are down 30% from last year, this info having been received from prominent retailers in the industry.

Whatever the cause of this downturn is immaterial for this thread.

The question becomes: Can paintball as we know it sustain itself if this is as good as it gets?


Consider this:
Manufacturers and retailers can only give out sponsorships if sales dictate the ability.

Pro teams can only attend the major circuits with sponsorship money; whether that be from manufacturer, or retail sponsors. It is otherwise to expensive.

Tournament circuits can only survive with team attendance and sponsorship/advertising dollars from manufactuers/retailers to remain the same size. Team attendance is predicated on the sponsorship dollars that come from manufactuers/retailers. Sponsorship/advertising dollars paid to the circuits also come from those same sponsors.


If the growth of paintball stagnates, or even declines the volume that has brought prices down thus far may inevitably rise based on economies of scale. So the question becomes:

Would you continue playing paintball if it cost MORE to play than it does now?

Consider the industry as we see it now:

Long-standing manufacturers have sold their place in the industry(Tippman, WGP, etc))
Other manufactuers have left the industry(Action Markers, G3PB/Jackel, KAPP, FreeFlow, etc)
Consolidation and merger attempts riddle the industry; Mfr's, and Tournie Circuits alike
Rumor of 'Pro' Players leaving the sport are abound
Talented Innovators supposedly leaving or being let go from their companies

If this is all true, where does it go from here?

[punkncat]

Well to be honest where CAN it go from here?

Markers have been at a standstill for the past several years. The ONLY thing to have really changed is weight and looks of the new markers vs. the older models. People are coming to the realization that its easy to buy a piece of used equipment for easily half the price of new that will perform JUST as well. The only thing you miss out on is the two weeks of everyone wanting to see your new marker.

Even more of the paintballing public have realized that given the average lifespan of the paintball player that there is no real need to build exceptional quality equpment. Look at the Trilogy and Ion.....

Many new players are being chased right out of the sport by the conditions of play at almost every local field. Its hard to find a game where someone with a ramping "flavor of the moment" isn't just waiting to hose them. Topped by the fact that this so called affordability is eaten up by the cost demand of the speed at which modern markers operate. So to get in a game like many of us actually started playing is nonexistant.

I think its no accident that paintball is in decline. It has killed itself. I see it shrinking in years to come and leveling out one again at a more conservative level.

In a way if prices do go up, maybe it will spur a movement back towards actually playing a game, rather than just hosing the other end of a playing field hoping to hit something.

[ThePixelGuru]

I think what determines if the industry survives is whether or not the companies can continue to make enough money off sales to turn a profit once paintball development stagnates. Let's face it, there's not much more we can do technology-wise from here. No one needs to shoot 45bps... You can't pull that fast, and no one's going to let you go full auto with it. We've done almost all we can to perfect the accuracy of a tiny, paint-filled sphere. Markers aren't going to get much better than this. Sure, they'll be a little smaller, lighter, and more consistent, but if your five year old marker can still compete very well, why change it? If you don't have to get a new marker every couple of years, sales per person go way down. And if companies don't have enough customers by then, they won't make enough money. I think that's what's going to determine if paintball survives or not.

[Steelrat]

I think one of the problems may be that the price point has moved too high. Its neat picking up your first spyder, but when you take it to a field and get mulched by someone sporting the latest DM or Intimidator, how often are you going to want to do that, if you can't afford to compete with their hardware? This is a hardware-driven sport, much more so than almost any other sport outside expensive ones like auto-racing. Equipment takes a back seat to skill in almost every other sport, from baseball to golf to fencing.

Plus, the sport seems targeted to those under 18, yet a truly cutting edge system now costs upwards of $2000 for everything. Thats just plain nuts.

[Boski51]

I think one of the problems may be that the price point has moved too high. Its neat picking up your first spyder, but when you take it to a field and get mulched by someone sporting the latest DM or Intimidator, how often are you going to want to do that, if you can't afford to compete with their hardware? This is a hardware-driven sport, much more so than almost any other sport outside expensive ones like auto-racing. Equipment takes a back seat to skill in almost every other sport, from baseball to golf to fencing.

Plus, the sport seems targeted to those under 18, yet a truly cutting edge system now costs upwards of $2000 for everything. Thats just plain nuts.

Steelrat is right on. I think the "Peter Principle" has hit PB. It has gotten promoted past its ability to produce. Think how expensive it is to play this game we love. Try playing at a tourny level for long without a sponsorship . Then top it off with rampent cheating and crappy attitudes from those people you play against.

Have you ever watch a game as a non PBer? With all the yelling and *****ing and throwing fits about bad calls and all the other BS.....

PB (tourny PB, that is) is killing itself because it became big business and business only operated on profit, nothing else.

I could not afford to play the yway I do now if the costs went up. I would switch to a pump and play less often.

[RoadDawg]

Well to be honest where CAN it go from here?

Markers have been at a standstill for the past several years. The ONLY thing to have really changed is weight and looks of the new markers vs. the older models. People are coming to the realization that its easy to buy a piece of used equipment for easily half the price of new that will perform JUST as well. The only thing you miss out on is the two weeks of everyone wanting to see your new marker.

Even more of the paintballing public have realized that given the average lifespan of the paintball player that there is no real need to build exceptional quality equpment. Look at the Trilogy and Ion.....

Many new players are being chased right out of the sport by the conditions of play at almost every local field. Its hard to find a game where someone with a ramping "flavor of the moment" isn't just waiting to hose them. Topped by the fact that this so called affordability is eaten up by the cost demand of the speed at which modern markers operate. So to get in a game like many of us actually started playing is nonexistant.

I think its no accident that paintball is in decline. It has killed itself. I see it shrinking in years to come and leveling out one again at a more conservative level.

In a way if prices do go up, maybe it will spur a movement back towards actually playing a game, rather than just hosing the other end of a playing field hoping to hit something.

wow...

[CoolHand]

Where can it go?

Down.

Will I still play if it gets more expensive?

Yup. I was playing when paint was still $120 a case. I'm not going anywhere, however, I might turn the ROF down on the old Viking a notch or two.

I could compose a great big rant about the state of the industry, but for the sake of brevity, suffice to say that I enjoyed PB a great deal more before it was so "main stream", and it won't really hurt my feelings much to see it head back that way.

[Recon by Fire]

Now I have always heard that the majority of the paintball business is outlaw and woodsball and not the tournament scene. Assuming this to be true, then the tournaments can all crash, the sponsorships disappear, the pros go bye-bye, and to the rest of the paintball community things will go on. Maybe the paint cost will go up but woodsball always seems to be friendlier on past usage anyway. Maybe pump/stock will come back in style then.

[KJHawley]

I love threads like this, they make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside...

Yeah, the "Cold War" of Paintball has finally caught up with everyone's wallets. When you factor in the at least moderate amount of skill, huge ROF, and seemingly endless amounts of paint that an experienced paintball player can throw at Robbie Newbie, it's no wonder paintball is experiencing some problems.

If you live anywhere near a bookstore, go look at the paintball magazines they have on the shelf. Leaf through the table of contents for most of them. It's all doom and gloom- leagues folding, companies going bankrupt, sportsmanship is gone...

I think it's time paintball went back to the woods.

Or, more accurately, that the media coverage of paintball went back to the woods. Several years ago, industry experts estimated that 75% of all paintball players are "outlaws", not tourney airball players. Magazines like APG and Paintball Sports now have regular columns from Special Ops.

Look at some of the newest paintball markers out there. AGD- the Tac One, the ultimate Scenario marker. Smart Parts? The SP-8. Even the Ion, you could say, is in some ways a step "down" from high-end tourney markers. And probably the biggest manufacturer of all- Tippmann- just introduced a PUMP GUN. And one specifically designed for outlaw use!

Airball is Dead. Or at least dying a slow, painful death. Like the Soviet Union.

Long Live Woodsball!

[stop whining buy a mag]

Airball is Dead. Or at least dying a slow, painful death. Like the Soviet Union.

Long Live Woodsball!

Airball won't die. The style of play most commonly associated with it will. It is true that many players of this game play rec games in the woods but there are those out there who like the fast paced games on an airball field. I'm just not patient enough for woods anymore. Playing pump helps some but when I can I'll take the DM4 and a case of paint out to the local airball field. Costs me about $70 and I only play once a month now so it isn't so bad on the wallet. Whoever said that marketing a sport that requires $2000 in gear to people under 18 is crazy is right. This is why the industry is slowing down. Lots of people are slowing down with the game and the little kiddies are tired of trying to keep up with the latest guns. For the past 3 years all the new high end markers have been similar. They try to stay in the 2 pound range while being able to shoot 20 BPS. There's no need to drop $1300 on a new gun because it is 1 pound lighter. Pick up the previous generation of that gun for about $600 and your set.

Hopefully this slowdown in the market will weed out the people who aren't serious about the sport. Hopefully this will raise the integrity levels.

[Rather]

I honestly think airball will cease to exist in a couple of years. If it were as popular as you say it was, thered still be a nice sized indoor airball field open here in TX.

While the 25% of players who do play tourney/airball do spend more on average, most of them try and find any excuse not to pay every single dollar of the regular price, putting the field out a few bucks just because they are tx storm or just because they have a sponsorship that has little to nothing to do with what they are trying to get out of paying for. Now sure if its an outdoor field then they will make up for that with the 75% of other people paying small amounts to play ona birthday or party. But if the field is airball only, I can promise they won't be getting too much back because everyone else wants to play woodsball for a lower cost and because all the 'pro' players will gather at the airball field (which is really just too many people with screaming wallets) and want to not get out gunned so bad. Sure that means better competition for those Air ballers, but how many people would that leave if about 75% of the people in your area didn't want to play there? How much money is that 25% of people willing to pay to play airball on a regular basis? Not tourney circut players, regular people with regular jobs with an irregular passion for playing the game. How long before they run out of money and decide to quit too? How many people would you loose because of overspending players?

I just sold off everything pb related (of any value) so I could make back some of the unholy amounts of money i spent playing, losing a job kind of cuts off your ability to feed hobbies and such. Having your hobby as your work is also murder too. I don't think i will ever play a single game of paintball again, ever. I'd have to be mace'd and dragged, kicking and screaming, before I even consider coming back to something as small as pump, years later. Was fun for the while i did play, but i really don't care for it anymore.

[Lohman446]

Techology has begun top plateau (sp) in paintball. If you compare technology from 2000 to technology from 2002 there was a major increase in performance. Midway through 2004 you had ramping made public to help spur sales, though for many that was not markers but aftermarket boards. What are the increases from 2004 to 2006. Some weight, some price concessions (Proto, one of the hot sellers), some efficiency. Most people have realized that what they have, or a marker a year old or so will do everything they need and there is no great advantage to upgrading entire markers. Perhaps some have upgraded there markers rather than buying new. Many people this year, perhaps faced with tighter budgets than last, have decided to wait to upgrade, or forego upgrading there equipment at all for next season.

[Lohman446]

I honestly think airball will cease to exist in a couple of years. If it were as popular as you say it was, thered still be a nice sized indoor airball field open here in TX.

While the 25% of players who do play tourney/airball do spend more on average, most of them try and find any excuse not to pay every single dollar of the regular price, putting the field out a few bucks just because they are tx storm or just because they have a sponsorship that has little to nothing to do with what they are trying to get out of paying for.

But if the field is airball only, I can promise they won't be getting too much back because everyone else wants to play woodsball for a lower cost and because all the 'pro' players will gather at the airball field (which is really just too many people with screaming wallets) and want to not get out gunned so bad. Sure that means better competition for those Air ballers, but how many people would that leave if about 75% of the people in your area didn't want to play there? How much money is that 25% of people willing to pay to play airball on a regular basis? Not tourney circut players, regular people with regular jobs with an irregular passion for playing the game. How long before they run out of money and decide to quit too? How many people would you loose because of overspending players?

Can we say egocentric?

[phantomhitman]

Good post, hopefully it leads to good discussion. My opinions stated below have nothing to do with the money aspect of paintball, only the game iteself.
Here is another question.
How does current, and future, state of paintball affect you anyway?. People can get up on a soapbox and state facts or simply say the sky is falling, but in the end people rarely listen. I hear gloom and doom of pb in every forum from alot of different people. It really doesnt matter at all, you will still go the field this weekend and play IF you still like to play. That is where the negative aspects start to come out of everyone...and the truth is revealed. Some people do not like the speedballers, tourney guys, or kids with fast guns. Others do not like the hype or "got to have items" in what they used to think was an underground sport. I will be the first to admit that the younger guys are mostly pricks and the average tourney guy can be a handful to deal with. It is unfortunate, but pb has nothing to do with those guys. These people were raised as idiots and there is not a real way to keep them in check. You cannot play them straight up and you cannot overshoot them. When players of the same sport cannot get along, fight and bicker about the smallest of things, and constantly point fingers at each other for ruining or holding back the sport it will not be long until the end. I play just about every version of pb (woods/rec/tourney/scenario) and I see people complaining more than playing. The gun makers are not making you shoot a guy 20 times, the hopper manufacturers are not making you shoot over 20 bps, and the clothing makers are not making you hate another for the clothes that they wear. It all comes down to the individual and how they play the game. I love playing with my team, they are all good sports that get out when hit, give each other props for good shots, and are not embarassed to get shot and go to the deadbox. It is becmong harder and harder to find a good game because people are generally tools, and you find this out when you step on the field with them. The demise of pb will come with the players, not the manufacturers, but people will not understand that.

On a side note it costs a ton to go to tourneys now. It cost my team $600 for entry and paint for a 3 man.....yes a 3 man. That doesnt include guns, gear, gas, or food.

[BigEvil]

This downturn was a long time coming.

When guys like Tom Kaye and Bud Orr abandone ship... you know that the ship is in trouble.

One of the biggest problems inherent to paintball is that you need alot of space to play. Land or 'space' is not cheap by any means. Think about how tough it is for an indoor field to survive if they have to pay a $8000 a month rent? How much overhead does the average paintball store have, and how much can it handle in order to make a profit?

On top of that, the markup on paintball gears is not as high as most people think. When you buy a $1200 marker, the buyer usually assumes that the seller is making at least $300 profit from it, when that is rarely the case.

Market forces will exert themselves on paintball just like ever other industry and a 'happy medium' will be established.