Is paintball at (or near) a peak

[SCpoloRicker]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.

[Lohman446]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.

You have to add the term at a high level to make it fully uncomprehendable.

[Tool-of-death]

On the original topic...

I think Yes.

Like Tom, I have heard from industry people that business is way down. From manufacturers and field owners both. 20-30% from recent peak sales, I've heard. Industry wide that adds up to $300,000,000. Not small change!

Part of it might be tech and BPS and the general shallowing of the learning curve. Ten years ago 15bps was an amazing skill possessed by a very few players. Now its standard for $250 at the pro-shop. The effect of that is that you no longer have to be in the tourney scene to get lit up with 20+ balls. Most casual renters who are on the receiving end of that sort of punishment simply don't come back.

I suspect the actual culprit is demographics. When I first played fifteen years ago you needed to be 18, or 16 with parental consent. It was rare to see anyone under 18 playing. In the last seven-eight years, age limits have dropped to 10. Most of paintball's recent phenomenal growth has been a result of those changing standards, I bet. And now there is nowhere else to go for new players. And demographically, age cohorts are getting smaller. I.e., there are fewer 9 year olds to be next years Newbies than there are 15 year-old players who are ready to quit.

30% of 300,000,000 90,000,000

300,000,000 - 90,000,000= 210,000,000

I don't think the big guy's are feeling it right yet, + don't forget about gas prices, at a low of 3$ pergallon and a high of 6$ some people have to drive and hour or more to get to a field.

+ don't forget the "My way or the high way" attitude of most paintballers, esspecily but not limited to the people on specialopspaintball and pbnation. Also when a first time rental player get's on to the field with his procarbine and get's shot 3 4 5 6 7 8 times by some guy with a highend tourny marker (or a newb with no trigger control and an ion) he/she may or may not ever want to come back to play.

Also paintball is a sport that if you gave ollie lang a procarbine and some random person at the field a procarbine they would be evenly matched. ollie lang will most likliy win because of his experience , but it would still be an interesting match.

Most people (I said most not all) Hide their lack of skill behind a high ROF and their 5+4+5 packs. ROF brought down the prices of paint, but it also lowered the amount of skill you need to get 15+ BPS.

[dahoeb]

I get the feeling you've never competed at a high level.

I agree with what I think you're saying, but thinking "most people can excel at a sport if they are willing devote enough effort into it" is silly.

When someone says "compete at a high level", i think NFL or Olympics or state championships. I played sports in high school (never went state unfortunately) and played sports for the base team. so i have played sports and competed.

when i say "excel" i mean that the person is competitive and pretty good; not olympic quality. i probably shouldve been more clear.

I agree that it does sound a little silly to think that anyone can compete at the highest level of a sport (ie. nfl...). but ive seen too many people go from fat"butts" on second string jv to speed demons on the varsity team to someone CAN'T at least be good and competitive at it.

[Lohman446]

When someone says "compete at a high level", i think NFL or Olympics or state championships. I played sports in high school (never went state unfortunately) and played sports for the base team. so i have played sports and competed.

when i say "excel" i mean that the person is competitive and pretty good; not olympic quality. i probably shouldve been more clear.

I agree that it does sound a little silly to think that anyone can compete at the highest level of a sport. but ive seen too many people go from fat"butts" on second string jv to speed demons on the varsity team to NOT think they can at least be good and competitive at it.

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

[teufelhunden]

30% of 300,000,000 90,000,000

300,000,000 - 90,000,000= 210,000,000

I believe paintball is an industry larger than $300M/year, and so I'm lead to believe he was stating that 30% of $1B is $300M.

Also paintball is a sport that if you gave ollie lang a procarbine and some random person at the field a procarbine they would be evenly matched. ollie lang will most likliy win because of his experience , but it would still be an interesting match.

No way. Real life example of why this is inane: I spent my days playing tournament ball with 18 bps on my fingers and 3/4 a case on my back. Same crap as Lohman, I quit tournament ball. Since then, I've only went out a few times, only using my VSC Phantom [for the unitiated, that means I have a pump gun with 12g CO2 cartridges and 10+1 balls in my gun]. Given my skill at playing the game, me + Phantom was generally a superior combination against most in the woods, where I chose to play. To call paintball a game of equipment and equipment only, as you did, is way off base. You're either new to paintball or completely ignorant to anything other than spray and pray, but if you're going to try and make a decent point about Ollie Lang being nearly evenly matched with some random you plucked out of JimBob's Paintball Country given equal equipment, you're out of your mind.

Most people (I said most not all) Hide their lack of skill behind a high ROF and their 5+4+5 packs. ROF brought down the prices of paint, but it also lowered the amount of skill you need to get 15+ BPS.

Like I said, you must be new to paintball. Were you around before every kid had an Ion or a Spyder Imagine? How about when the Impulse was a top end tournament gun cuz it was as fast as anything else but lighter... and could run CO2? In those days, when people didn't have 143882 firing modes, there was obviously a skill gap between players, and there's no equipment to blame it on. Even today, when half of the 12 year olds at the rec field have *insertgunofthemonthhere* with Halo B's and HPA, you can tell who can play and who can't. While the game has changed, skill hasn't. BPS doesn't make equal skill, and having insane BPS on tap doesn't make skill any less important.

[SCpoloRicker]

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

You're being glib, Lohman. You're being glib.

[dahoeb]

You're getting more ambiguous (sp).

eehhh, whatever. i guess i just wasn't clear enough in the beginning.