Blackjack "Ladder" Betting

[CaptaiN_JacK]

[Lohman446]

And all betting strategies fail for a simple reason. There is a statistical anomaly in blackjack when one actually tracks wins and losses. You win and loose in streaks. This kills any so called "ladder theory" (which I have only heard used to describe relationships). Stacking ones bet is one way to take advantage of the streaks that happen.

Either way you run into what is called the "gamblers dilemna" in that the casino can sustain a longer loss streak than you can and every hand played increases the odds of the casino ultimately winning.

[Hexis]

Actually with that betting it does not matter what the odds of winning are (to a point). The problem is you will run into the table limit. If you have any real chance of wining, and you get your bet plus the same amount back, continuing with the betting pattern will eventually win your original bet. It's kind of binary like.

Bet: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and win on 16. You have put out 31, and gotten back 32. All of the bets plus 1, the original bet.

[CaptaiN_JacK]

Either way you run into what is called the "gamblers dilemna" in that the casino can sustain a longer loss streak than you can and every hand played increases the odds of the casino ultimately winning.

Exactly. Sooner or later we have to hit a losing streak that puts the bet at such a high amount we can't cover it. The max. bet (at the high roller pit) was $1000, I believe, which is only 8 hands lost in a row, a very possible occurance. The key is to be able to back up your bets and be able to throw down a few Gs on a single hand. With this betting strategy you can't stop. Ever.

But when you play basic strategy and play smart after that you narrow the house's odds of winning down to about 45%/55% or less, which means you'll win about 4 to every 5 you lose (rough guesstimate).

[Hamster Huey]

You were betting what's known as a progression, in this case the well-known Martingale progression. You're lucky you did as well as you did. As you can already readily see, the problem of quickly running into the max bet is what will bankrupt anyone trying to play this way. This doesn't stop a lot of people from trying this anyway.

In fact, no betting system will get you ahead consistently in blackjack, no matter how complex the system. Just like the slot machines that you so deride, there is a set mathematical disadvantage in blackjack that cannot be overcome (short of card counting). This disadvantage (around 0.5% if you play perfect basic strategy) is independent of your bet. The cards don't care if you just doubled, tripled, or quadrupled your bet. If you play basic strategy, you'll always win roughly 44 out of every 100 hands. lose 48/100, and tie for the reamining eight.

The casinos have math and large numbers on their side. You have only the fickle swings of luck to rely on. If you look objectively at your current situation, the best way of maximizing your profit at this point would be to walk away with your $75 and never play again.

[SCpoloRicker]

This kills any so called "ladder theory" (which I have only heard used to describe relationships).

jus sayin

/sfw
//those MIT kids had a good system

[Lohman446]

jus sayin

/sfw
//those MIT kids had a good system

Have a good system, but its based on card counting and betting with changing odds. It works if you can keep enough concentration and not get caught

/Has been asked to leave casinos for counting before

[Zygote]

I was under the impression that progressive betting would get you thrown out too.

[Hexis]

Any sort of betting of playing that shifts the odds in a consistant manner away from the house is likely to get you booted.

[CaptaiN_JacK]

I want to start a counting team, but they have an end cut card at Mystic that they put in about 1 deck from the end (when they hit the yellow card, they start a new shoe). They also use 6 card shoes, so it would take a long time and lots of concentration to keep an accurate count for the entire shoe. Counting would be a great addition to progressive betting though.

I was also under the impression that progressive betting would get us thrown out, but we changed tables often, but most importantly, we played like newbs, looked like newbs, and acted like the newbs we were. And besides, I look way too innocent and cute to be trying to take down the house!

By the way Huey, thanks for the info.

[Lohman446]

I want to start a counting team, but they have an end cut card at Mystic that they put in about 1 deck from the end (when they hit the yellow card, they start a new shoe). They also use 6 card shoes, so it would take a long time and lots of concentration to keep an accurate count for the entire shoe. Counting would be a great addition to progressive betting though.

I was also under the impression that progressive betting would get us thrown out, but we changed tables often, but most importantly, we played like newbs, looked like newbs, and acted like the newbs we were. And besides, I look way too innocent and cute to be trying to take down the house!

By the way Huey, thanks for the info.

Thats true most places I beleive. I have never been challenged over any bet progression but I have been challenged on counting (and the betting changing accordingly)

[Skittle]

how does counting cards work anyway? Ive heard of it but ive never really understood what it was.

[Lohman446]

how does counting cards work anyway? Ive heard of it but ive never really understood what it was.

MTI came up with a system that involved placing value to cards. The dumbed down version that I have used successfully is a bit simpler. 2,3,4,5 were worth 1 and all face cards were worth negative 1. As a shoe has more face cards in it the cards (hidden and future) become more predicatable and the standard strategy guide becomes more accurate. Double downs become more predictable and successful among other parts of strategy. A positive count of 5 or higher is a good time to increase your bet, a negative count is a good time to lower your bet. Using this as well as a progressive betting system (not the system described above) where I increase my bet slowly during winning streaks with a positive card count has proven to be reasonably successful (though I have often enough lost money as well).

The problem I find is that I like to chat with the dealers and other players, and the dealers are very good at chatting and keeping your attention (add to the idea that I select my table by the one with the hottest female dealer doesn't help). I find it hard to keep an accurate count when playing for longer than an hour or so.

[Krazy Ivan]

The real ladder theory:

http://www.intellectualwhores.com/masterladder.html

[Skittle]

thanks to that and nomarriage.com I am hating women more every minute. Actually, I have already had mose of these thoughts, im glad to see im not alone.

does anyone else believe these sites... I dont know about the ladder theory though, I think most girls my age (19) are too stupid for anything like that.