Hegemony in Paintball - Is it possible?

[teufelhunden]

I don't believe WGP is considered 'upscale' anymore. Look at how few Karnis sell. WGP is surely holding firm in the midrange, but for whatever reason, the Autococker is not looked upon as a high end gun, no matter what it's dressed in.

If the Eclipse rumors are true, however..

[PBX Ronin 23]

Why? How does "credibility" with a minority of paintball players in a low magin elite part of the sport help their sales to the unwashed masses in Bigbox stores?

And doesn't K2 have some "upscale" cred already with WGP products?

WGP's presence is definitely sliding from the upscale segment and they're putting a lock on the mid-range. If K2 is successful in creating an "upscale" flavor in some of their product lines, it would have a coat-tail effect and add some more legitemacy to some of their other product lines.

[GT]

no offense,
when did wgp ever offer a true top notch product? there top crop line is littile more than nickel plated pneumatics with an e frame. Please, Ill take the super stock for half the price trabeck. What is the gun that wasn't a complete rip off in the wgp line?


The only cockers that were creme de la..... were third party made, aka, splatattack, doc, bbt, etc.....

[PBX Ronin 23]

Outside the Karni, WGP really hasn't done a true high high-end. Maybe a true low to mid high-end like the e-Orracles or even the old STO's. They've always historically followed the innovation set by third-parties. That's always been the case historically.

[Kevmaster]

So maybe it would be sensible not to make assumptions about how they lie in relationship to BE/VL/WGP?

You're right. I know all I am doing is making assumptions. However, it is my FEEL that NPS does not approach the 100M mark. Maybe I am way off base. Only a select few at NPS probably have the real answer (Yourself included). In my dealings with the industry, I just don't see NPS being as large and as powerful as BE/VL/JT/WGP.

Again, though, I could be entirely wrong

[manike]

NPS is far larger and more powerful than you think.

[smilestyler]

NPS is far larger and more powerful than you think.

LOL, sounds like the dark side of the force.

[Kevmaster]

NPS is far larger and more powerful than you think.

Fair Enough.

[PBX Ronin 23]

If the SP patent gets invalidated and WDP has sole ownership of the E-gun patent, would WDP have the necessary leverage to become the biggest force in the industry?

[Lurker27]

Um...Yes.

That's assuming that the US Navy patents that predate even the WDP patents aren't upheld.

[JoshK]

I think K2 will because they have Viewloader, WGP, Pure energy they have all the bases covered with products, and all are popular...I have a feeling that they will control alot of the lower end market, and WDP the higher end. But thats I just me, I have no idea who will come ahead.


EDIT: I beleive I was wrong with pure energy...but WGP still makes tanks.

[rabidchihauhau]

You all are not looking at the BIG-ENOUGH picture.

BOTH heavy-hitters (NPS, K2) need to grow market share in order to stay afloat.

NPS developed the traditional market and is strongest there. K2 developed the mass-merchandise market and is strong there. (When I say K2, I mean the whole conglomeration.)

The ONLY place for either of these guys to go is into each other's backyards. K2 started working in the traditional market with their Maxis line (a line where the guns are available in both markets but the accessories are only available to traditional outlets).

NPS is busily trying to solidfy their base and workinig, no doubt, on breaking into mass merchandise. (I see a bit of a hiccup there, as NPS likes to stay on top of their dollars and chains like Wal-Mart like to do the same, so there's potentially a bit of a clash there; add to that the fact that K2 will basically get 'right of first refusal' over any product introed to W*M that is in a niche they already have product in; lets put it this way. K2 has an inside track with most 'box' stores, which makes it difficult for competitors to get in there.)

Given that the market is somewheres between 2/3rds and 3/4s backyard players, most of whom are introduced through box stores, the REAL battle is in finding ways to transition those folks to the respective product lines once they become 'regular' players. In that battle, K2 has the edge on OPPORTUNITY, while NPS has the edge in migration path.

So far as muscle, reach, funding and etc goes - again, K2 has the edge. While BE/WGP is only a small part of their empire, in their first quarter earnings, BE had the best numbers, so you can bet the K2 corporate types are DEFINATELY paying lots of attention to paintball.

When it comes to IP, again, K2 has the dollars and the muscle to obtain whatever they want/need AND to enforce it. NPS is definately working on the innovation end and building their portfolio, but IP is dicey. The system is ultimately designed to pressure folks into competing through innovation (screw those guys, I'm not paying them a royalty, I'm going to invent around them!).

If you spend several mil making the next best, gear up for production and then someone else, a little more innovative than you, improves your product or designs around it, it leaves you with a white elephant. So, ultimately, the issue is not over IP control, its over control of the distribution chain.

Both NPS and K2 could be doing things better for themselves. Will there be a hegemony? If so, only temporarily, as the US Government holds the monopoly over all trade in this country and when someone gets too big and influential, they can be called in on grounds of anti-trust - so what both the industry giants actually want to do is to get to that magical 70% of the market and then stay there.

[SlartyBartFast]

BOTH heavy-hitters (NPS, K2) need to grow market share in order to stay afloat.

A disgusting falacy that is at the heart of many failures in the business world and the skewed fiction of the stock market. THere is a rediculous beleif that an investemtn is only good if the business continues to expand and profits always increase. Stable companies and good investments are those that remain viable and continue to make steady profits and maintain their market share.

Growth and capture of market share DO NOT equal profits or sustainable business. I don't think Glenn Palmer has EVER gained market share. Yet, PPS is still a going concern ("afloat").

Sure, growth IS good and CAN be extremely profitable. But, the day that a company starts looking like it is growing for the sake of growing is the day that you want to get your investment out.

[hitech]

I've seen growth kill companies. I don't personally subscribe to the adage that you have to grow to survive. It's never that simple.

[PBX Ronin 23]

Both NPS and K2 could be doing things better for themselves. Will there be a hegemony? If so, only temporarily, as the US Government holds the monopoly over all trade in this country and when someone gets too big and influential, they can be called in on grounds of anti-trust - so what both the industry giants actually want to do is to get to that magical 70% of the market and then stay there.

The only problem to this Steve is that the paintball industry still doesn't have it's own SIC (Standards Industry Code) and still fall within the Sporting Goods Manufacturing realm. This is the mechanism that the Federal government uses to track a company's market share within a certain industry in order to prevent the creation of monopolies through the Hart Scott Rodino Act.

The necessary triggers that requires reporting requirements with the Feds will not happen until the industry is assigned its own SIC number. So a company that has 90% market share in the paintball industry will only be seen by the Feds as having a miniscule percentage of the Sporting Goods industry....and thus no need for concern on the Feds' part.

That's why it is a possibility (not a probability) to have hegemony in paintball.