Has the Two Decade Climb turned Downhill?

[PBX Ronin 23]

[Lohman446]

I'll put more in later, but let me just ask a question.

Paintball was growing at phenomanel rates that only an industry in its infancy can generally be expected to have. Did we expect this to continue out of infancy?

[kramer]

We are in a recession - coupled with the inflation of everything (gas - BIG one) - COUPLED with the fact that paintball prices (paint, field fees, etc etc) are unreal - spells out trouble for the industry.

So barring from all the rich kiddies that have mommy and daddy shelling out bucks, or the other elites that seem to have money pouring out of their rear ends - the regular joe paintballer is struggling - which means a wave effect towards any profits towards the industry.

Which is a damn shame since I love this darn extreme-sport.


just my 2cents.

[Chronobreak]

the sport can only allow for so many new players to join.

i think alot of the companies you mentione were counting or expecting the growth rate to continue for some time but the truth is the pool is dilluted.

companies like wal-mart were probly seeing an increase in sales and thought lets expand.
with more companies having entry level brands and producst it leaves less of the pie for everyone in the long run.

paintball used to be so small compared to what it is now so almost any increase seemed like alot.

while I'm in no way affiliated with the industry theres my thoughts.

and i wouldnt be surprised to see smaller companies business dropping out, until the giants of the industry are left to battle it out.

i do work at a field and i would say the amount of new players is rather steady or so it seems..

--edit i also agree with lohman and kramer, everythings getting more $ it seems, and most of us arent making more $(ex paintballers main age group 14-20 or so)

[paullus99]

Paintball as an industry is beginning to mature - the nature of the business is changing & will result in a considerable die-off of small companies that either can't grow fast enough to compete or capture a niche market in the industry.

There are still plenty of opportunities out there, but I think you will continue to see fundamental shifts in the way the business is run, the sport evolving, and a new generation of players entering into the sport that will shift the industry focus once again.

We are still seeing plenty of growth in the Mid-Atlantic, maybe not the kind of growth like the mid-1990's, but demand is still there.

[PBX Ronin 23]

Paintball as an industry is beginning to mature - the nature of the business is changing & will result in a considerable die-off of small companies that either can't grow fast enough to compete or capture a niche market in the industry.

There are still plenty of opportunities out there, but I think you will continue to see fundamental shifts in the way the business is run, the sport evolving, and a new generation of players entering into the sport that will shift the industry focus once again.

We are still seeing plenty of growth in the Mid-Atlantic, maybe not the kind of growth like the mid-1990's, but demand is still there.

I agree with your first assessment. The industry is indeed maturing as evidenced with the recent spate of litigation and the ever-increasing need for intellectual property attorneys in the field. The small companies that cannot innovate and remain agile to meet market challenges will in all likelihood perish. The larger companies who hold onto assets, both financial and intellectual will be the ones to survive the down-turn.

For now, opportunities are still abound in certain parts of the country. But some of the traditionally strong markets (i.e. NYC tri-state area, California and Florida, to name a few) are beginning to feel the slow-down. If we see an overall decrease in new entry-level players, down the line, we will see an inevitable decrease in tournament level players as well.

Whereabout in the Mid-Atlantic region are you from?

[BigEvil]

I agree with many of the statements above...

I want to add that Paintball is also a luxury. People cant afford to play at commercial fields every weeked. Look at recrational softball... it costs next to nothing to play in a league and you get to play every weekend, plus practices.

I know that I can't apply that to paintball. If I play 100 times a year, 95 of them are outlaw with my own $40/case paint and $5/fill scuba tank. Those other 5 times are when I plurge and hit a big game or other event, such as an AO day or something.

Once the newness of having tried paintball wears off then a lot of people dont come back. Or even worst - people listen to horror stories around the water cooler (or by their school lockers) from someone who played for the first time and got lit up.

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

[shartley]

As did the elder statesman, Id concur with your observation,

The resounding reason I keep hearing from players (new and old alike) is that paintball isnt as fun anymore. This comes from all styles of players(rec-ballers, tourney-ballers, scenario-ballers).

When you see the pioneers of the game leaving(the ones who did it for the pure love of it), chances are likely that the above statement is true for more reasons than are obvious.

[Lurker27]

I think something that's being ignored here is the further bifurcation of the paintball industry. The Wal-Marts of the world are not selling to a growing extreme sport that's getting television exposure like never before. The largest chains are still selling to the camo-wearing backyard warriors, which are, generally, players maligned by those in the tourney scene.

The main difference, of course, is economic. In backyard/woods ball, one case can last several sessions of play. In general, you have people playing with total setups falling well below the $200 price point. As soon as you get into speedball, you're realistically talking about upwards of $500 to play competitively, or emulate the pros. Add in the image that paintball has, largely associated with skateboarding, marijuana use, etc. and you're left with a marginal sport that has start-up costs far surpassing the more entrenched traditionalist sports.

I think that by and large, its fundamentally difficult to spur growth from an uninitiated populace into tournament paintball. To further expand paitnball as a userbase, you'd need to expand low budget woodsball games. The problem is, such a long-view expansion falls short of immediate earnings projections...why not just build a $1700 super-marker, since people already in the sport are buying them.


It's already having a ripple effect. There are less and less people joining the ranks of the tournament ballers. I hesitate to use the word saturation, but it's getting there. Already used gun prices are beginning to decrease in value as the market begins to fail under it's own weight...Basically no paintball guns go permanaently out of service, and new ones are always being bought.

So, to summarize a somehwat hurried and disjointed post. The growth cannot be spurred by the one section that the industry is trying to do it with. The game as a whole is at critical mass/population for word of mouth spreading, in my opinion. I think that the best tactic would be to let the flashy players endorse woodsball products concurrently with their highend tourney stuff.

"Hi, I'm Chris LaSoya. Everyone has to start somewhere, and for me, it was Tippmann" and so on and so forth.

Can you imagine how much a smart parts electro-eyes-blowback endorsed by Dynasty would sell for? Granted, it would probably be 2 tubes soldered together with a price of ~$80, but the potential for earnings is simply outstanding.

Post Scriptum: I'm not saying we shoulda abandon the tourney scene, ala AGD. They've priced themselves out, more or less, of the range of the casual baller.

Mel, I'd like to discuss this and other things at length with you in a different format.

[AcemanPB]

Either way, I'm still playing.

[mag88888]

hmmmmmm around where i live, paintball is geting jacked. everyone wants to play it. ive introduced dozens of people and all the kids ive played with love it. im trying my best to spread the sport. i search for extra guns and masks everywhere foir them to use. i give them all pballs to use. around here its worth it cause i like to see new kids. after every game i here, "can i buy this from you?" every kid has now bought their own guns.

[mag88888]

everyone is too nervous about the sport dying or whatever. its been around for only 20 years! thats all people, just 20 years. the sport is in its infancy and all people are doing is throwing cigarettes at it. people back off, calm down, were the pathway for the sports future. if all you want the sport to live lets see more positive remarks than the everlasting negativeness!

[paullus99]

Central Maryland - there are several fields within about 40mins of my residence (some good, some bad, but all still in business & busy). At least two paintball businesses in my area are expanding (Pev's & OA both) and capturing new segments of the market. By some figures, at least 75% of paintball players in our area never play at organized fields (and you should see how many tanks get filled & cases of paint purchased on Thursdays & Fridays), but play outlaw ball only.

If we can find a way to bring more of these players back to the fields, you'd see a huge increase in growth - but it remains to be seen if that is possible. No one really gets into the paintball business to get rich (especially the field owners) - normally its something to pay the land mortgage until some big developer comes in and buys the place out for a mint.

[PBX Ronin 23]

Yes, perhaps we're seeing the development of a more traditional economic cycle developing here. But the fact of the matter is, variables that have a macro-economic impact such as the rising price of gas/oil for example, has served not only to retard the growth of the industry this past year but could also serve to adversely impact it again this year.

The smaller companies will fall by the wayside while the capitally strong ones will forge ahead into a more conventional and cyclical market....this I agree with wholeheartedly.

I think that by and large, its fundamentally difficult to spur growth from an uninitiated populace into tournament paintball. To further expand paitnball as a userbase, you'd need to expand low budget woodsball games.......

There are less and less people joining the ranks of the tournament ballers. I hesitate to use the word saturation, but it's getting there............

So, to summarize a somehwat hurried and disjointed post. The growth cannot be spurred by the one section that the industry is trying to do it with.

I would disagree with your premise simply because of the following:
1. No one is born a tournament baller. They develop from entry-level woods ballers.
2. The Entry-level player is the pipeline that feeds the tournament scene with new players. They may not all become tourney ballers but a tourney baller certainly has to start somewhere.
3. The largest segment of gun sales for the industry is the entry-level market.

[boggerman]

I am not in the industry, but I was looking forward to playing this year more than ever before and unfortunately the paintball scene has completely dried up around here. I am disheartened to think that I may have to resume a different hobby simply because there is no one to play with.