Has the Two Decade Climb turned Downhill?

[johnson88]

I dont know about some of you but in my town there are so many people who play when i first got into paintball everyone had outlaw woods games now i see more and more people heading for the local feild and speedball. Im sorry to say it but i think a lot of the realism senario people out there might help keep the sport alive because they think its like war.

I think paintball has changed so much since i have been playing some for good. For example when i first started there was spyder and tippmann knock offs then 600 and up guns which all seemed so far away. And i think the industry is relizeing this and getting more intermedaite level markers out there which helps expand the sport. But also i have seen it change into a speed contest where everyone wants the fastest newst thing. So i think the new intermediate level guns will get many more people into the sport.

[Lurker27]

I must not have communicated myself very well.

I am saying that the expansion of the sport has been oriented towards the image of tournament paitnball, which is prohibitively expensive for someone unaffiliated with paintball to jump right into.

If tourney ball is a progression from woodsball, why not market woodsball? You'd see an increase in total # of players, rather than a greater % devoted to tourney play. I'm still being inarticluate, but my point is that its too expensive to play tourney ball from the perception of someone outside of paintball with respect to other sports.

[Lohman446]

When paintball first started its potential market was bigger. What I mean by that is noone had played. It is not uncommon in "new" markets to see enormous growth rates (double digits) for several years. However, this is not realistically maintainable and anyone who thought it was... well frankly had no business education. I am surprised the "growth" of the industry lasted as long as it did. Further, you had the other advantage of this growth. "New" companies could step in, the other companies were not large enough, or had nto had invested enough to drown out competition. This is both fields, manufacturers, and stores. Granted you can always step into a market, but its easier when there are not established players.

Now we have overshot what we could support, or so it seems. Counting on growth that we could not maintain we have saturated the market with manufacturers, fields, stores, etc. You have the other issue. It is fairly economical to start a paintball field in relation to other businesses that deal in the type of revenue they do. A lot of people have started them with just plain wrong assumptions about profitability. Those that have grown at a reasonable rate, and have established themselves are ok. Those that were started because some kid convinced his parents paintball wuold make them all rich, for the most part, are gone, or will be.

As we see growth slow to normal we will see more solid companies, and less slipping by the wayside. These companies will be founded on solid business models, and not wild speculation and great ideas... I think we are running out of advancements that are just leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. They will last.

Granted, this sudden though expected (or should have been) slow down in growth, and perhaps shrinkage of the market place is made worse by the current economy and inflation of necessities the sport will continue. It will just continue with those companies that had as sound of business plans as they did inventions.

[PBX Ronin 23]

I am saying that the expansion of the sport has been oriented towards the image of tournament paitnball, which is prohibitively expensive for someone unaffiliated with paintball to jump right into.

If tourney ball is a progression from woodsball, why not market woodsball? You'd see an increase in total # of players, rather than a greater % devoted to tourney play. I'm still being inarticluate, but my point is that its too expensive to play tourney ball from the perception of someone outside of paintball with respect to other sports.

I got you Wonder Boy.....I pm'ed you.

When paintball first started its potential market was bigger. What I mean by that is noone had played. It is not uncommon in "new" markets to see enormous growth rates (double digits) for several years. However, this is not realistically maintainable and anyone who thought it was... well frankly had no business education.........

........A lot of people have started them with just plain wrong assumptions about profitability. Those that have grown at a reasonable rate, and have established themselves are ok. Those that were started because some kid convinced his parents paintball wuold make them all rich, for the most part, are gone, or will be.

As we see growth slow to normal we will see more solid companies, and less slipping by the wayside. These companies will be founded on solid business models, and not wild speculation and great ideas...

Granted, this sudden though expected (or should have been) slow down in growth, and perhaps shrinkage of the market place is made worse by the current economy and inflation of necessities the sport will continue. It will just continue with those companies that had as sound of business plans as they did inventions.

Ten-four that. But the problem also exist that the people who have no clue are going into the paintball business only results in worsening the conditions in an already crowded market.

[Lohman446]

I got you Wonder Boy.....I pm'ed you.


Ten-four that. But the problem also exist that the people who have no clue are going into the paintball business only results in worsening the conditions in an already crowded market.

People who have no clue often go into the automotive industry. Aside from a select few they normally influence my bottom line for about six months. Remember boys and girls, most business loose money for the first 1 to 3 years. Most take about seven to make back there initial investment. Paintball is becoming more and more a "normal" business and those going into it, expecting instant and vast profits, are finding they cannot survive the years that it takes to build a business.

[voodooaddict]

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

I would have to agree.

While mid-highend paintball markers have gotten so much better and afordable, they have had the side effect of seriously intimidating the new player with rental equiptment. The gap between rental mechs and mid to high end electro's these days is similar to a Classic Mag vs a Pump 10 years ago. The main differance being that 15+bps electros cause much more pain. While this has always been an issue, it apears to be getting worse.

The new players who used rentals are going home and not fondly remembering the time they had. When I started (over 10 years ago now), getting lit up bad was 2-3 extra hits. And that didn't often happen with the ROF those days. With the average rates of fire these days ... you are glad if you only get hit 2-3 extra times. Being lit up by some kid with an Impulse every game won't bring players back out. Even out in the woods fields, kids are shooting strings of paint at rental players. While these kids aren't intentionaly overshooting people, it still really hurts. The new players are going to go home and go back to playing video games, or worse ... golf They aren't even going to goto wal-mart and buy themselves a spyder clone because it won't prevent the pain.

I'm organizing a private game for my friends that have never played before later this season. That way they don't need to deal with people overshooting them. I've got a small collection of markers now that folks will be using along with the rentals ... I'm going to be locking all of them down to 8-9 bps range for the private game. My brother and cousin won't be very happy with me about the limit! But they'll hopefully deal with it. This is one of the reasons why I made sure that every elecro I bought had an adjustable max rate of fire.

(... damn I want to get out and play! Only 3 more weeks till the ankle heals up. Till then lurking...)

[FreakBaller12]

Once the newness of having tried paintball wears off then a lot of people dont come back. Or even worst - people listen to horror stories around the water cooler (or by their school lockers) from someone who played for the first time and got lit up.

I do not think that paintball is as nearly newbie friendly as it once was.

that's because, look at the industry, look at our bps rates. Yea your going to get an extra shot or two, which could scare the crap out of somebody being hit for the first time. Paintball is mainly speedball, 90% of the commercial fields are speedball, and that's where kids usually go to play their first time. This sport isn't newb friendly anymore, back in the day you'd play in the woods get "sniped" or whatev, shot once and leave the field, no biggie. But with today's ramping full auto, bps jumping, fps inverter dohiggies, your going to get shot more than once.

editretty much what voodoo said I agree with.

[cdacda13]

So many long posts.

My take is that, newbies are starting out by buying used guns. Why? becuase its cheaper. Therefore, pb companies lost sales. More and More people buy used markers each day.
Back in the day(which i wasn't around for) people only bought guns new because the paintball community wasn't as close as it is now. Now, with the internet and pb forums, it easier to by a cheaper used gun, then spend 2x as much on the same gun "new" Products are being recycled, which is VERY BAD for any company,
I rarely buy new pb stuff, its so much cheaper to pick up a "NIB" gun or item. That 1000$ i could have spend on an angel would have gone into WDP pockets, but insted, I can spend 700$ on a used angel. THats 1000$ less not into WDP pockets.

[shartley]

People who have no clue often go into the automotive industry. Aside from a select few they normally influence my bottom line for about six months. Remember boys and girls, most business loose money for the first 1 to 3 years. Most take about seven to make back there initial investment. Paintball is becoming more and more a "normal" business and those going into it, expecting instant and vast profits, are finding they cannot survive the years that it takes to build a business.

that's because, look at the industry, look at our bps rates. Yea your going to get an extra shot or two, which could scare the crap out of somebody being hit for the first time. Paintball is mainly speedball, 90% of the commercial fields are speedball, and that's where kids usually go to play their first time. This sport isn't newb friendly anymore, back in the day you'd play in the woods get "sniped" or whatev, shot once and leave the field, no biggie. But with today's ramping full auto, bps jumping, fps inverter dohiggies, your going to get shot more than once.

editretty much what voodoo said I agree with.

[tyrion2323]

This may be an extremely simplistic point, but we can't ignore the fact that enough paintball guns have been introduced into the market that many players simply trade or buy used guns instead of buying all brand new guns...

I mean, there really isn't a "have to have" product or technology anymore...Speeds have become ridiculous, most technologies have caught up with the 21st century...I really believe it's going to have to be a big movement on the part of both players and field-owners, not manufacturers.

[UThomas]

This is very standard industry evolution that is covered in Competative Strategy classes at business school. Paintball is moving from stage 1 growth to stage 2 shakeout, where the number of new entrants drops and lots of old ones that can't capture the new market drop off. Cost becomes a bigger factor is you try to leap the gap from early adopters to main stream.

If you check out standard industry trends you'll also get a feel for where paintball is going and why.

[Jackel411]

My view on this.... as the resident jaded old school young paintballer.. ( almost 22 but playing since he was 9 and around the game since 85 )

Ive watched the demographic change WAAAAAAY to much over the years I remember a time not to long ago really.. Id say 95/96 where Id be the only kid at the field.... now fast foward 10 years later some times Im the only adult! Ive said it before and got bashed many times for it.. Paintball is becoming a kiddie game and we all let it happen..

So....

SO be it if the entry level players are going away, personally the game could use some time to play filter out the players that arent long term and catch up. When you think about it the industry is chasing away the entry level players any way.. they can make more money selling expensive guns that cost 75 bucks to build , 1100 WS , and 1600 Retail every one makes a good amount of change VS. 25 bucks to build , 65 WS , and 90 Retail , Yes you could sell more of the lower end ones but low end guns have such a stigma now adays. More so with the introduction of the budget machine gun known as the Ion.. 300 Bucks gets you a gun with features up till now have only been found on guns costing 3 times that price....

Also look at other trends in the industry.... Kingman low end guns are no in the upper 100's , PMI's low end guns are still cheap and decent , Brass eagle guns the most exposed cheap gun basically disintegrates in 4 months after puraches from fun ailments like metal fatuige and gaulling of the inside chambers. WGP now has a decent low end semi and its a cocker. Tippmanns recent buy out spelled doom for them.. Ive seen more newer tippmanns break out of the box more than ever since the buy out..

There will be a time and its coming soon that in order to keep in the game every player is going to need to get a Higher ROF gun.. and when that happens.. The only people to benifit will be the paint companies.. just think of the ramifications of going to a field and getting stiched every time you get hit not just one ball. cause thats where were heading.. Now replace you with the Johnny Newbie... yeah I dont think he is going to play to long..

[UThomas]

Well, the demographics haven't so much changed in the sense that one group was replaced, as the sport when mainstream and a whole new user group joined. Complain about it, but that is why paint is half the price it use to be and there are tons of new fields.

At this stage in the industry companies are going to compete more and more on price. They have to because there are not clear value differentiators, as we have seen with ROF.

[NoForts4Me]

There are several interesting things coming out of this discussion.

1) Rate of Fire is detrimental to gaining new players. This in part is due to manufacturers whose only real innovation over the last few years (besides fancy milling) is increased rates of fire, and partly due to players who cry "faster, faster!". Since the possiblity of overshooting has dramatically increased, fields are going to have to jump in and seperate players based on skill/markers/etc. if they want to grow their base. They have different colored slopes at ski resorts, so it isn't an uncommon practice.

2) Let's go back to the Woods! Wow, what a turnaround. When I rejoined the sport 2+ years ago after a long hiatus, everyone was talking about how Woodsball was dead, and the game should move "out of the woods." Now people are advocating playing in the woods again. I think one reason is the game slows down and equalizes to an extent, since the fields are larger and there is usually more cover. It also probably isn't as intimidating for new players as a 60 second speedball game with thousands of rounds flying through the air. I'm all for this, especially since that's pretty much all I play.

3) The cost of the sport is exorbitantly high. This is somewhat true if you try to keep up with everyone else. Paint is cheaper now, but equipment can be much higher. One thing I see is the industry splintering into segmented groups. Pump play is on the rise, as well as Woodsball (see above), and we could possibly see mechs splitting off as well (if they haven't already). To me, this is good because there are plenty of choices. However, a new player may walk-on to a field and see $25 field fees, $70 a case paint, and people bragging about their $1500 markers and $500 worth of equipment, and hey, you suck since you have a Spyder, and they may never return since they aren't aware there are other ways to play and enjoy the sport.

4) Industry competition has increased and it's good/bad. This has positives and negatives, as has been stated before. But this is just part of it, and we will have to ride it out. However, other industries and sports have survived this, and so will paintball. Unfortunately, some of the companies we love will fall by the wayside.

All in all, I don't think the industry is headed for a crash. There may be a slump in some saturated areas, but there are areas (like mine) where the sport is rapidly growing. The growth rate won't be as large as the past, but it should steadily increase unless the U.S. has a major economical slide. And, if you've read all of my post and made it to here, you get one of these !

[Jeffy-CanCon]

I'll speak to a couple of points.

(1) Paintball is less expensive today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. The paint is less expensive, and so is the equipment. Chatting recently witha friend I played with ten years ago, he told me that the gun set-up he carried onto the field at the World Cup in '98 cost about $3500. There is no gun/air/hopper today that costs that much, that I am aware of.
Low end gear is half teh price today that it was 10 years ago, and is better quality.

(2) voodooaddict said it first, and some others have alluded to the negative effects of high ROF. Ask the people you play with, and the people you know who tried paintball with you once, long ago, about their first experience. If they had a good time, they came back. If they got lit-up, they probably didn't. I know at least one field that was worried about this two years ago, and planning to separate their walk-on groups by ROF.

(3) Jackel411's point about changing demographics is they key, IMO. Ten years ago, surveys showed that the average paintballer stayed with the sport for only about 18 months. Maybe that's changed a bit, maybe it hasn't. Paintball's growth has been a result of expanding the markets through sales at WalMart and the like, and of lowering the minimum ages. Every year more and more younger players were coming in, and this increasing age range masked the fact that there was still significant turnover. But now the age ranges have nowhere else to expand. The incoming crop of 13yr olds isn't big enough to replace the already-jaded 15yr olds who are getting out.


Slower growth is no problem to me, from a player's perspective, and I don't see it being an issue for established & healthy businesses (unless they were banking expansion plans on continued double-digit growth). There will be adjustments in the industry, and the strong will survive.