TK's opinions on the industry

[AGD]

Sadly, Steve is absolutely right on the money...

AGD

[rabidchihauhau]

Lohman - I agree with you too.

Not only that, but:

the ONLY reason to discuss it at any length is to be able to establish a solid base for future claims of "I told you so."

There are additional pressures at work - and a very interesting take on the growth of the industry:

Additional pressures would be - continued export of product mfg overseas (seriously putting a competitive nail in the coffin of homegrown startups. They might have the next best idea, but they won't be able to compete on either cost or margin at the retail level.

Here's the interesting observation: from 1996 until about 2003, the industry saw unprecedented growth. This was in a climate that was, at best, neutrally disposed towards all things "military". Someone else mentioned here that today we're back to calling paintball guns 'guns' and referenced the need to call them 'markers' back then.

NOW, we are in a decidely pro 'military' environment and guess what - despite what all the folks who are trying to sell their companies for multi-millions say - we're in a definate fall off. (My guess is one equal to the growth, which I believe averaged somewhere between 23 and 35 percent, per year, for a five or so year long period.)

Go figure that one.

Here's a hint. That growth was spurred by - low cost product, highly visible placement of that product (chain stores) and a huge potential, uneducated market.

Today, (discounting new population growth) we have an educated market (anyone inclined to give it a try has done so), the shelf-space in the chain stores has diminished, so-called low cost has been eclipsed by, for one, airsoft and no money is being spent, at all, in advertising the sport on a national basis. (And that's because if you pay for that campaign, you have to send those new customers somewhere to make your money back - and where are they going to go? Fred's field down the road? Oh yeah, that's right, you can send them to one of those National Certified Fields, the ones reviewed and approved by the National Paintball Council...

[Ninjeff]

The out look seems bleak.
Interesting point you raise with the "downturn in the market/ getting back to woodsball"

However, i wonder if there arent other forces at work. Indeed, coming into the late 90s the WHOLE economy (the countries) was at a high, and took a downturn in the past 6 years. I dont find it any stretch to beleive that those who play paintball may have deemed it expendable in thier daily hobbies. Combined with the fact that teh industry seems to have stopped "trying" may be what caused this recent decline.

I also wonder if our current national "history" (9/11, Iraq War, terror, Afganastan etc) has any relation to this rise in milsim popularity. Im not saying thats what i beleive, but it is an interesting sociological question.

As far as my opinion on the sport, i believe it is still save-able. But i dont think we can expect the rest of the world to care about paintball until paintball cares about paintball. Perhaps there was just too much of a push in the late 90s towards being a "legit" sport (ie making money) and the whole house of cards collapsed under its own weight. Perhaps the sport is just going through its own "teenage" years and will eventualy grow out of it. Maybe.

I can tell you one thing, until the people that really care about the sport start to effect change, things probably are not going to change.

Another thing i wonder, is how much MORE popular the sport would be if the paint prices became more affordable.
A case was $80 when istarted in 97, and, sure enough, its still $80. (for quality paint)
Am i to beleive that EVERYTHING else in the industry figured out how to stream-line production costs EXCEPT paint manufacturers?
Again, i dont pretend to know the inner-workings of the industry...but i DO wonder how many more people would play if they could actually afford to PLAY.
Now they can buy a marker that spews a case out in just a few minutes, yet, they cant afford to pay for the fuel to do so.I know spending $90.00's every weekend is something i just cant afford to do.

Spending $40.00 is.

[turbo chicken]

...I remember when the definintion of a pro paintball player was that he used technology LOWER than the typical gun on the field (12 gram days). If I was king of this industry I would point it back in that direction and sort the players out by skill instead of technopower. ...

I have that little comic that depicts this on my desktop right now. (it was posted on another tread here) I think it still holds true ...


the beginner ... dude with pgp looking marker
the expierenced ... dude with camo's and spyder looking fun
the advanced ... dude with full out camo superupped gun and remote
the pro ... dude with pgp looking marker

[3DSteve]

Osc

Tom -
I'm sure you already know about this, but you should check out the OSC (Old School Challenge). It's basically a limited paint, pump tournament series that is really gaining a lot of steam.

https://www.oscseries.com

Sal Briguglio at Xtreme Paintball Park near St. Louis is hosting an OSC event Sept 15 and 16. You should get some guys together, dust off a few pump mags and enter a team...or at least come down and check it out. It's not that far from you and it seems to be right up your ally.

http://xtremepaintballpark.homestead.com/events.html

peace

[RRfireblade]

Before you want to claim defeat , you have to agree on what qualifies the sport as a success.

Some , it seems , expects or had expected Paintball as a sport to grow untamed untill it rivaled Base/Softball , Basketball and the like. That was seriously flawed thinking IMO , even for the 80's and particularly now. We're talking about a sport based on groups of people shooting each other with guns. How could anyone really think that was going to take over as a national pastime ? Professinal ranks equal to what . . . Nascar ? Pro Baseball ? You have to be kidding with all due respect. There was never a chance of that no matter how organized you think you could get the industry. That being said . . .



Paintball has pretty much leveled out , give or take , to what it will probably ever be. The 'big' growth the industry saw ( and the one they many bet thier farms on) , IMO was a fad like any other , Mountain Biking , Snowboarding , (Extreme sports) etc. A sport that got a little attention mainstream , little TV coverage here and there , little Shatner , an influx of some new blood and then a market rush by mostly internet based paper companies trying to cash in a make a quick buck . . . artificial growth . . . big business attraction to said bucks. Unfortunately that did more harm than good as what we saw as a result was that was a nice little , or not so nice to many . . . calm , for the few years after.

So here we are , fairly even keel more or less. I don't expect much big change from here on out , the people that really enjoy it will continue to support it. I'd also expect those long termers will help to shape the future , the bad 'tude's "should" fall off as they have less places to play and there are less people to put up it. I'd then expect even the BIG business' influence will fall off somewhat as they fail to see big returns on their investments and take thier necks out of the direct line of fire. Following that , look to see some (new) smaller companies possibly have some room to play one again. Probably not a whole lot but some. I know I'm seeing more business because of it and am having a hard time getting product out to the few small retailers I deal to. "They" tell me it's just the begining . . . I guess I'll see.

The only thing I worry about for the long term future of the sport is the same thing that has always threatend it and it's getting worse every day.

Cost of Land ,Taxes and Insurance. If anything kills it , it will be that. Wouldn't matter what sport you were playing either. If your income and what you can charge is dependant on primarily un-employed , underage weekenders . . . you've got problems. If your in or near big city , you gots more.

IMO.

[nathanjones008]

my theory

I believe the market is doing very, very well. It is not at its peak but paintball is like the stock market , it has its ups and downs. Where I live at the sport is exploding, there are more people playing than ever. There is still NEW guns being released on a normal basis. The companies are making profits, if not they wouldnt be in business. There is companies mergring and companies taking over companies, nothing new. I am excited to be a paintballer at this point. The cost of paintball gear is cheaper than ever! There is so much competition that is what lowers the price. For example, i just bought a rail and it cost me under 400.00 that technology used to cost around 1000 bones. I can get a case of paint for 30.00. I coulndt do that 3 years ago.(paintball is in favor of the customer) In conclusion things are not the same as there were 5 years ago or so. But change is inevitable. There is much to be happy about take advantage of these cheaper prices

[Gadget]

Interesting read - there's a similar (albeit more UK-biased) discussion going on here at the moment, worth a read:

http://www.p8ntballer-forums.com/vb/showthread.php?t=84910