Has the electro seen its peak?

[hitech]

[Pneumagger]

rabidchiuahuah... excellent post. In an effort to explain what your observations/predictions are is as follows:

Look at the historical paintball market from say the early 90's to about 2004. Paintball was experiencing it's technical revolution you might say. Every year there were advancements in technology that lended significant increase in utility to players year after year.

Crude Example: Pump > Semi > speed > loaders > electros > eyes > faster guns> faster loaders > smaller > etc.

Looking at the market today, technology stagnation and restrictions has halted advancement in marker improvement. Players no longer have a reason to buy the latest and the greatest. They stopped listening to hype and know that an 03 socker is just as good as an 06 or any other such example. The modern manufactures are catering to the tournament players, when most of the market is in recball/woodsball sales.

In short... Players are wising up and don't have to buy a new marker every year to stay competitive. In the past they used too, now they don't, and the companies have been increaseing output instead of shifting markets.

There are growing successfull portions in the industry that cater to the budget players and local paintball scene. Too many companies are trying to be elite company and the vast majoruty of the market is suffering for the small tourney scene.

Look at the auto industry. There are a few sportscar makers and a bunch of auto manufactures. They each have a different aiming point. In paintball, everyone is aiming for the top spot at the expense of overlooking the bulk of the money market.

To answer the topic: The electro has seen it's peak in growth, but will remain at the top with a consistent market share percentage.

[slade]

Looking at the market today, technology stagnation and restrictions has halted advancement in marker improvement. Players no longer have a reason to buy the latest and the greatest. They stopped listening to hype and know that an 03 socker is just as good as an 06 or any other such example. The modern manufactures are catering to the tournament players, when most of the market is in recball/woodsball sales.

you can't really say that. the companies are a better judge anyway. the majority of rec/woodsball players DO use "tourney" electro markers, while there are companies (tippmann, kingman, PMI, K2, AGD in part, and smaller companies) that release products mostly or entirely for the woods/rec market.

[Grey Goose]

I think pneumagger is right about people realizing they don't have to buy every new gun to stay competitive.

I've said for a long time now that electros would kill paintball.

Consider the Newb. He goes out for his first game of recball and gets his rental Tippy. He's armed and dangerous. He will then spend the next three hours either:
a) cowering in a bunker, waiting to be lit up by a Ion, 'Trix, or some other electro.
b) cowering in the rest area listening to the aforementioned markers being dry fired as rapidly as possible.

Is it a wonder that players are exiting the sport but not being replaced?

Consider also that an electro requires a high dollar hopper. In the old days, you got a 'mag or 'cocker and continued to use your gravity hopper. When you learned to shoot faster, you bought a new hopper. This is a small item, but worth mentioning, because it adds another price barrier.

Consider that playing with electros take a LOT of the fun out of the game. Remember the old days when you were running around shooting at each other? Now we just sit behind bunkers. Faster guns = shut down running lanes = less movement = less fun.

My idea of the future of paintball is that the electro has not only peaked, but has hurt the sport. The resurgence of stock/pump is a rejection of the electro.

I think we'll see an increase in pistol (look at the TAC 8) play, and I also think fields should SERIOUSLY consider seperating electro and mechanical players.

Field owners who are not actively encouring newbies to return, by any means necessary, are cutting their own throats. I think those means start with limitation or elimination of electros in play with said newbies.

[Pneumagger]

you can't really say that. the companies are a better judge anyway. the majority of rec/woodsball players DO use "tourney" electro markers, while there are companies (tippmann, kingman, PMI, K2, AGD in part, and smaller companies) that release products mostly or entirely for the woods/rec market.

I was basically getting at the point of owning the latest and greatest electros. Big companies continue to pump out markers that cost more and offer marginal gains in performance. This type of marketing is clearly aimed at the professional level tourney scene where all advantages can be seen as neccessary.

However, while making guns more expensive and negligably better (to the point where 90% of all players don't feel it is worth an upgrade) they discontinue last years models leaving the average player to buy used (hurting the company). The big companies have been in this pissing contest using hype for so long, that they've hurt themselves. When's the last time the paintball community has seen a must have product since the Halo?

Until something new hits the market, manufactures will have to cut prices by at least 30% to continue growth. Remember, at every price level there is a merket saturation point. Right now, we seem to be on the brink of market saturation. Either the manufacturers must lower prices or stay at the current market share. You cant honestly tell me these electro's cost $800-$1000 to make... there's room to drop prices.

Jay/Nicad - as the push back to mech continues... then would be the time to release an air assisted trigger.

[Lohman446]

I was basically getting at the point of owning the latest and greatest electros. Big companies continue to pump out markers that cost more and offer marginal gains in performance.

I theoretically disagree with you. Compare the "cutting edge top markers" of five years ago (whatever SP called there 'cocker, the Cobra Angels, etc.) to the price of todays markers. The fact seems that top end marker prices are slowly coming down while offering marginal gains in performance.

[don miguel]

I myself have gone down from an electro to a semi. I used to own a spyder electra acs o5. It broke down alot and wasn't good for woodsball. Plus I wasted so much paint overshooting. Now I have a minimag that can do 10 bps and I am fine with that. I am happy more people have gone to pump, that is where skill takes over firepower.
Just about any nubie can pick up an ion and go spray and pray. That takes the skill out of paintball and makes it less fun. If you are expierienced a pump marker or non electro semi should be just fine.

[Pneumagger]

Actionvillage and other Retailers:

MacDev '06 Borg - $950+
PL Ego - $1500+
Ego - $1000+
Angel 1 - $1000+
DM6 - $1000+ <----- In the order that I beleve is best -> worst
Onyx - $1000+
'06 timmy - $999
Shocker NXT - $750
Nerve - $999

Now how many of these guns are significantly better than their used couterparts that can be had for half the price? And these are '06 markers. Wait until the '07 models hit the market. Same BS, slightly higher pricetag.

Back in '02/'03, a brand new Viking retail was $800-$900. Those guns were superior to everything back then and almost all on that list above too. (minus the modern size comparison) Angels in APG Magazine back in 2000 were about $999. So were the turbo shockers, and Automag R/T's. The only company that has attempted to move massive volume with price cuts in the past year is SP.

[slade]

I myself have gone down from an electro to a semi.

im sorry, did you actually just call a spyder a legitimate electro?

Now how many of these guns are significantly better than their used couterparts that can be had for half the price? And these are '06 markers. Wait until the '07 models hit the market. Same BS, slightly higher pricetag.

slightly higher pricetag? prices of high end electros have been going down steadily.

[Pneumagger]

slightly higher pricetag? prices of high end electros have been going down steadily.

Only very recently. And that can be seen as market saturation and the advent of $199 competitive entry electros.

[Lohman446]

Actionvillage and other Retailers:

MacDev '06 Borg - $950+
PL Ego - $1500+
Ego - $1000+
Angel 1 - $1000+
DM6 - $1000+ <----- In the order that I beleve is best -> worst
Onyx - $1000+
'06 timmy - $999
Shocker NXT - $750
Nerve - $999

Now how many of these guns are significantly better than their used couterparts that can be had for half the price? And these are '06 markers. Wait until the '07 models hit the market. Same BS, slightly higher pricetag.

I disagree with your assessment of the Viking as the Benchmark and your comparing used prices to new. 03 Shocker in 03 was like $1000. A Shocker NXT, with 'slight' advances is considerably less. Not sure off hand on Timmies but I seem to recall when they were over a grand, as was the DM4

[rabidchihauhau]

There are, of course, multiple issues at play here. I believe the key factors are:

market saturation
negative cash flow
lack of new player growth
the economy, stupid

1. there are too many companies offering similar products, at similar price points, for anyone to be able to turn sustainable sales numbers.

Coupled to that is the 'mind-set' on the part of every manufacturer that if they can hang on long enough, they'll reap the rewards as their competitors fall by the wayside; in other industries, we would be experiencing a round of buy-outs at this point - consolidation, if you will. While some of that seems to be happening, its not enough and not soon enough. Rather than recognizing the inevitable, almost everyone seems to feel that THEY are the ones who are going to win. End result - lots of companies limping along, trying to keep their heads above water, with many making ill-considered, desperate moves to stay in the game.

2. obvious end result of #1, this exacerbates the situation; sponsorship dollars are drying up, advertising dollars are drying up, new product releases are suffering, etc.; this mostly affects the '2nd tier companies' - folks who earn their dollars off of something the mfgs do. In a nutshell, when liquid assets get tight, companies cut back, which has a negative effect on sales, which makes the money tighter, which causes more cut-backs...

3. as a result of 1 & 2, most companies are loathe to spend dollars on 'growth', because right now, doing so is sending good dollars into a pit of uncertainty; better to spend the advertising and marketing bucks on things that show a solid return. Like any other negative spiral, lack of investment in future growth means a smaller market ad infinitum

4. the external economy does not help either and remains a major factor even if paintball as an industry is unable to affect it. The industry took a double whammy from 'the economy'; higher costs across the board (parts, materials, manufacturing, shipping both ways, labor, benefits, etc) and diminshment of disposable income on the part of customers. (I can't prove it with numbers, but I have this terrible feeling that a very large percentage of would-be paintballers are becoming air softers instead, if only because the associated cost of that game is arguably a TENTH of paintball costs). Sure the economy created umpteen new jobs last quarter - but those jobs are for the most part low-end, low-paying, no-benefits jobs. Add to that that many, many families bought into ARM mortgages, citizen savings are at their lowest point ever AND its a known fact that most average everyday folks are living off their credit cards and you have a population that is not capable of spending several hundred dollars a weekend for 'fun'. So, we have higher associated costs and lack of dispoable income - with an imperative for mfg to try and close the gap - which means lesser margins, which means smaller cash flow and - right back into the negative spiral.

I do not believe that the picture is going to improve significantly until - the product glut has ended, someone, somewhere addresses the 'growth' issue with dollars and the economy itself starts putting more bucks into your average middle-class family budget; or - some new technology comes along that breaks the back of the industry as we know it (make paintballs at home kit...?)

[Lurker27]

The electro has not seen it's peak.

[RogueFactor]

The electro has not seen it's peak.

Considering the new 2006 SGMA numbers, do you still believe this to be true?

[mostpeople]

There was talk of an all mechanical tourney league, I would really like to see that happen...