Has the electro seen its peak?

[cyrus-the-virus]

wow rouge, this thread is 2 months shy of being a year old....

[rabidchihauhau]

those are very interesting numbers. I'm plugging them into some excel spreadsheets to see what else they might tell us...

interesting that I've been saying for YEARS that backyarders make up anywhere from 2/3rds to 3/4rs of the player base.

interesting that 50% left - when the previous swag was that your average player lasted 18 months. Of course, we don't know how long that 50% has been playing: I left and was in it since '83...

[rabidchihauhau]

I find those numbers particularly interesting in light of the fact that people general say that paintball is a half-billion to 1 billion dollars annually industry.

That's worldwide.

Now, if you take the 2.4 million who played 1-7 times and assume all of them played once
and you take the 650,000 who played 8-14 times and assume they played 8 times only
and you take the 1.9 million who played 15 or more times and assume they played 15 times only

and you add all of those "player-days" together, you get 36.1 million player days.

Thats anything from popping off 100 rounds for 15 minutes to a full 8-10 hour day.

If you take that 36.1 million player days and divide it into a billion dollars, you get 27.7 and change - say 28 bucks.

So, in order for paintball in the US alone to generate LESS than one billion dollars a year, you're looking at the average cost for a day at UNDER 30 dollars per player.

Not likely. Suppose your average backyarder gets a bag of 500 rounds and one 20 ounce fill: what's that - $15 to $25 bucks.

Everyone else is over the 30: you buy a bargain basement case - its 25 plus right there. add an entry fee of 5 bucks and you've still got all day air at 10 - now we're at 40 dollars.

What about the player days that represent tournaments and scenario games? Easily 100 per player - 60+ for paint, 15 to 25+ for entry, 10+ for air... food, drink.

NO equipment sales of any kind are figured in above. You buy one nicknack and you're over the limit. And we're only talking the US.

I think its pretty clear that either paintball dollars are devalued by 90%, or the industry is generating revenues WELL in excess of 1 billion per year.

[mag_lover05]

players are now more then in a long time moving to pump/mech play, several of my fields are starting mech only tourny's

[RogueFactor]

I find those numbers particularly interesting in light of the fact that people general say that paintball is a half-billion to 1 billion dollars annually industry.

Which people say that? Industry folks? Or just your standard joe? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Lurker27]

Considering the new 2006 SGMA numbers, do you still believe this to be true?

I'm speaking purely from a technological standpoint.

As a play format...Maybe. I'd wager the core group of electro wielding tournament players has increased, while the margins of the woodsballers shrink.

The real problem I have is that the electros are getting so cheap now, they find their ay into the hands of first time players, and I suspect its not nearly as much fun playing against a 17bps ion as a mech spyder or tippmann, when you're learning.

[MedicDVG]

wow rouge, this thread is 2 months shy of being a year old....

This thread was started 07-28-2005

Interesting read to see if the attitudes and everything have changed. Surprisingly not....

The original question I think can be answered that no, it has not seen its peak quite yet. I think the high end electro's have seen a plateau, while the introduction of midrange to low end electro and electro-pneumatic markers will see steady growth especially in the 3rd party production market ala Virtue boards for damn near every marker out there.

That being said, I still think that the industry is basing its success on the player where shooting 20+ BPS is not a financial hardship. Put into perspective lets say an "average" case of paint is $50.00 -- not talking quality here, rather only price. That is roughly 3 cents a shot per case... at 20 BPS you are shooting at about .60 cents a second... for sake of argument you lets even round that down to .50/sec.. Still you are shooting a dollar worth of paint every 2 seconds...

When you talk to people who have left the sport or are on semi-permanent sabbatical I see mostly 2 key areas.

1) Attitudes -- the "win at any cost" mentality takes the fun out of the game. Overshooting, wiping, "the F those guys/HK/Agg mentality", and ultra competitive nature turns a LOT of people away from the sport. We used to promote this sport to parents as one that reinforces team building, integrity, and fair play. Now there are teams that make the worst little league parent look like Ward and June Cleaver...

2) Cost -- again throwing a dollar out the window every 2 seconds....


I am more of the Sunday get with your buds and play in the woods type player. I enjoy reffing speedball more then I do playing it, and if I do play speedball it is with one of my pumps. That is the way I grew up with this sport, and thats the way uh huh uh huh I like it...

[nathanjones008]

This thread was started 07-28-2005

Interesting read to see if the attitudes and everything have changed. Surprisingly not....

The original question I think can be answered that no, it has not seen its peak quite yet. I think the high end electro's have seen a plateau, while the introduction of midrange to low end electro and electro-pneumatic markers will see steady growth especially in the 3rd party production market ala Virtue boards for damn near every marker out there.

That being said, I still think that the industry is basing its success on the player where shooting 20+ BPS is not a financial hardship. Put into perspective lets say an "average" case of paint is $50.00 -- not talking quality here, rather only price. That is roughly 3 cents a shot per case... at 20 BPS you are shooting at about .60 cents a second... for sake of argument you lets even round that down to .50/sec.. Still you are shooting a dollar worth of paint every 2 seconds...

When you talk to people who have left the sport or are on semi-permanent sabbatical I see mostly 2 key areas.

1) Attitudes -- the "win at any cost" mentality takes the fun out of the game. Overshooting, wiping, "the F those guys/HK/Agg mentality", and ultra competitive nature turns a LOT of people away from the sport. We used to promote this sport to parents as one that reinforces team building, integrity, and fair play. Now there are teams that make the worst little league parent look like Ward and June Cleaver...

2) Cost -- again throwing a dollar out the window every 2 seconds....


I am more of the Sunday get with your buds and play in the woods type player. I enjoy reffing speedball more then I do playing it, and if I do play speedball it is with one of my pumps. That is the way I grew up with this sport, and thats the way uh huh uh huh I like it...

Great point! I perfer playing woods/ rec ball. The high comp takes the fun out of the game. Thats why i dont play speedball that often I think electros have not hit the peak either, not yet at least.( The xmag 2 is coming out before the peak ) THere is nothing like playing capture the flag in woods ball. I love putting one flag in the middle somewhere. I love using tactics besides just spryaing and praying I think one day woods ball will make a come back.

[Lohman446]

Has paintball / the electro seen a peak? Yeh - it has. In hindsight I think we can point to the numbers and show that. Are there big problems for companies that were set up dependent on the massive increases of the decade? Yeh, but thats just poor business practice to expect a start up industrty to maintain incredible growth. You are going to loose some companies, some competition in the short term.

That being said... paintball has not seen "the" peak. In 20 years sales and participant numbers will be better. There are bound to be various peaks and valleys between here and then, and changes, changes we cannot imagine. But, in the end, I expect you are going to find there is overall upward movement through those peaks and valleys.

[Zone Drifter]

For me, Electro as certainly seen its peak. I played some tourneys out of friend request, given a gun (proto) and just went out. It got old real fast, and while walking never felt better, i was only able to tag out people with 1 bps, not like 20.

I'm really thinking of a pistol/pump and single trigger mechanical concept, maybe someday i'll make a field that sponsors someone like tiberius, CCi and whoever else makes simple, reliable guns that make the sport fun. Of course, i have no money, no land and no sense of buisness ownership so that wont be happening anytime soon, if at all.

I would really like to see more mechanical only tourneys. I mean, sure the automag rt can rip, but even still its not as careless are throwing paint with an electro. (unless you bouce the trigger, and who wouldnt love to mess with that) but i honestly have gotten tired of wasting money on air and paint. luckily, ive never paid for an electronic gun, nor will i ever. I've played half my paintball "carrer" with a JT excellerator, and guys with angels were asking me what i was using. When they see JT on the gun, they just walk away. Yeah, even I am ashamed of it sometimes, but they made a good gun at one point, just forgot how to do it in the past 5 years.

Anyway, im going mechanical freestyle all the way. mechs + experience = Fun > electro